Despite the uncertainty brought about by the government's rail policy, Trainline is forecasted to maintain growth, UBS suggests.
The threat of a new national rail ticket website has led to a sharp decline in Trainline’s shares, now 30 per cent lower this year, even as demand remains robust, as reported by .
UBS acknowledges "market concerns" but points to recent data showing "continued growth potential for the group."
Rail travel is nearing pre-pandemic figures, with current passenger volumes at about 90 per cent of those before Covid, reflecting a seven per cent increase from last year, says Department for Transport (DfT) figures.
Analysts at UBS are predicting that Trainline could see nearly a four per cent upturn in full-year market volumes, and together with this year's five per cent fare hike, ticket sales could burgeon by approximately nine per cent.
Trainline is set to provide its financial outlook on 7 May.
March saw Trainline achieve a record £5.9bn net ticket sales, fuelled by º£½ÇÊÓƵ business growth, alongside the launch of a new £75 million share buyback scheme.
Yet, following these announcements, shares in the company plummeted over 13 per cent amid investor apprehensions over a potential state-owned rival.
Data from UBS's "Evidence Lab" shows that Trainline's º£½ÇÊÓƵ app usage increased by three per cent in March. Still, the company confronts fierce competition, especially in Spain and Italy.
"Our analysis indicates the group's market share of users stood at 86 per cent on March 25 and while this is still strong, it has fallen from around 90 per cent in March 24."
Analysts have set a Buy rating of 480p on the stock.
