The growth rate of the 海角视频 economy is expected to slow sharply as a result of the impact of the coronavirus, according to听 the latest forecast by the British听Chambers听of听Commerce听(BCC).
The business membership body has cut its growth forecast for the economy in 2020 from its previous 1% position to just 0.8%
Outside of the 2008/09 financial crisis, this would听be the weakest full-year growth outturn since 1992听and听down sharply from听海角视频听GDP growth of 1.4% in 2019.听
BCC said that gross domestic product growth听is then expected to be 1.4% in 2021 and 1.6% in 2022.
Its forecast indicates that by the end of 2022, the 海角视频 economy will have grown below its historic average growth rate of 2.6% for eight successive years, the longest period since records began.
The disruptive impact of听coronavirus听is expected to weigh significantly on key drivers of 海角视频 GDP growth through the first half of 2020.
BBC said the听 lack听of听clarity on the听海角视频鈥檚听future trading relationship听with the EU and other partners around the world听and a struggling听global听economy听is also predicted to limit 海角视频鈥檚 near-term growth prospects:听
海角视频 export growth in 2020 is projected to be its weakest since 2009听as a subdued global economy, the impact of听coronavirus听and uncertainty over future trading arrangements听constrain听export activity.
Business investment is expected to contract听by 0.7%听this year as听the impact of听coronavirus,听the cost of doing business in the 海角视频听and a lack听of听clarity on the future trading听conditions听limit investment intentions.听听
Growth household spending in 2020 is predicted to be at its slowest since 2011, as the effect of听coronavirus听temporarily听weakens consumer demand, despite historically low unemployment.听听听听
On the upside, historically strong levels of听 海角视频 and Welsh Government spending - both observed in Budget听2020听and anticipated in the upcoming Spending Review and Autumn Budget听鈥撎齛re expected to听support the 海角视频 economy through the forecast period.
The measures announced by the听Bank of England, including听lowering听interest rates听and steps to support business access to finance,听will听also help听mitigate听some of听the impact of the coronavirus on the 海角视频 economy.听听
Suren鈥疶hiru, head of economics at the BCC said: 鈥淥ur latest听forecast听indicates that the 海角视频 economy听faces a challenging short-term outlook.
鈥淚t is increasingly likely that the boost from higher government spending and more听political听certainty, will be surpassed over the near-term by the negative impact of听coronavirus听on the 海角视频听economy.听
鈥淎lthough the scale and impact of听coronavirus听remains highly uncertain,听early evidence of听disruption to supply chains and weakening听in听consumer听demand听and business activity听could mean that even in the case of听a听temporary shock to the economy, there may be some听long-term impact on听economic output 鈥 particularly if significant action is needed to combat its spread.听听
听 鈥淔ailure to achieve a听海角视频-EU听arrangement听conducive听to trade听is also a key听risk听to the outlook for the 海角视频 economy as disruption听in听early 2021听could adversely听affect听economic conditions.鈥
听
Adam Marshall, director general of the British听Chambers听of听Commerce, added: "Coronavirus could further weaken an already stagnant 海角视频 economy, as many businesses are starting to report an impact on their cashflow and growth prospects."听
鈥淭he Chancellor听and the Bank of England have听responded to the immediate challenge with measures to help firms hit by coronavirus,听and听they听must now ensure this support听gets to听businesses听as quickly as possible.听听
鈥淢ore will need to be done later in the year to boost business confidence and tackle prolonged economic stagnation. Securing new trading arrangements, taking real action to reduce听the听high upfront costs听of doing business听and putting spades in the ground on long-overdue infrastructure projects must be prioritised in order to secure our long-term economic听prospects."
