The cost of the South Wales Metro rail electrification project has rocketed and is expected to cost the taxpayer around £1.3bn, nearly double its initial estimate.
The project to electrify the Core Valley Lines into , as well as the City and Coryton lines through the capital, was initially forecast with a price-tag of £734m.
However work has taken several years longer than initially hoped because of Welsh Government budgetary constraints and the Covid pandemic and inflation in the wake of the Ukraine war have both pushed up costs since construction began in 2020.
for Wales, the arm's-length-transport company of the - has yet to finalise the full cost for the now-completed project.
In the context of major rail enhancement projects, the increase in cost versus the original forecast is far lower than other major rail project cost overruns, such as high speed two and the electrification of the Great Western Main Line. The budget had already been revised upwards to £1.1bn in 2023.
The original budget, set back in 2016, consisted of £164m from the , £445m from the Welsh Government and the £1.3bn City Deal for the Cardiff Capital Region, and £125m from the º£½ÇÊÓƵ Government. The increased cost has been financed by the Welsh Government.
Transport for Wales chief executive James Price told a recent meeting of the Senedd's Climate Change, Environment and Infrastructure Committee that the project had seen around another £150m added (to the £1.1bn forecast). That final projected cost has now edged up to around £1.3bn.
He told the committee: "We know that we are between 30% and 70% lower cost than the º£½ÇÊÓƵ average per unit of delivery, which is a good thing, and we know that we have got significantly greater growth in passengers than we thought. So, I think the business case looks really strong, but we need to continue to do our best to control those costs."
The project, via delivery partner Amey Infrastructure Wales, has seen electrification of 170 kilometres of track with new stations and signalling built.
The first of 36 tram-trains on the Core Valleys will be introduced this summer, with a programme of driver training under way. With required signalling work at Queen Street Station, the full turn-up-and-go timetable benefits will not be felt until next year.
Addressing Cardiff Breakfast Club, Mr Price also outlined an integrated public transport network that does not act as a last resort but instead provides customer choice. He said the new bus franchise model, following legislation passing through the Senedd, will provide a "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity" to create a new bus network across Wales integrated with train services.
TfW, which is overseeing bus reform, is also the operator of the Wales and Borders rail franchise, which has seen increasing passenger levels. On the importance of the publicly subsidised bus network in Wales, he said: "Around three quarters of all public transport journeys are made by bus. For many, especially those who are vulnerable, isolated or living in rural areas - and indeed in city centres-buses are not just a convenience; they are a lifeline for businesses such as yours.
Buses can be a key way of getting your team members where they need to be and allowing your customers to access you. For too long, we've seen declining passenger numbers, inconsistent service quality, and networks that don't always join up or reflect needs.
"And at the heart of bus franchising, which is simply joining the whole back together and having a coherent plan, is a simple promise: a reliable service people can trust, delivered in a strategic and integrated way. We have no illusions about the scale of that challenge, but we're more than ready to rise to it - and we're not doing it alone. It is the collective effort of our partners in local government, bus operators big and small, trade unions, community groups, and of course our passengers, to turn that ambition into reality.
"The legislative foundations are nearly complete, so all the primary legislation, the difficult bit, is done. We have detailed preparations for the first zonal franchising rollout in south-west Wales significantly under way. After south-west Wales, we will move to north Wales, then south-east Wales, and complete the transition in mid Wales, moving as quickly as we possibly can
"I think it's a once-in-a-generation chance to build a bus network that truly reflects the needs of Wales; urban and rural, coast and countryside, young and old, and a network that's reliable, affordable, flexible and easy to use. To do that, we want to take the best of the private, public and third sectors and combine it as part of a coherent and thought-through proposition for the whole of Wales."
He said that buses, trains, trams, active travel routes and cars should "come together not in competition, but coherently as one."
He added: "Where rural hubs are connected to our towns and cities, and where public transport is a matter of choice, not a last resort -that's the Wales we want to build: a fully multimodal transport network that connects Wales. As part of this, we're investing in real-time data, integrated ticketing and digital platforms to make travel easier. We're thinking about the whole journey from doorstep to destination, and we're embracing innovation, battery-electric trains, smart ticketing and AI-powered solutions."
With government funding challenging he said that TfW needed to be more efficient and clearer than ever before about its priorities, ensuring it invests in projects that "deliver the greatest value for Wales."
On a new administration after the Senedd election in May, Mr Price, a former senior Welsh Government civil servant, said: "This is another for us to re-engage, reassess our vision and show the value we can bring to the new administration. Whatever shape it takes, we are confident that a new government will want us to deliver a great train service, make a success of bus franchising, and harness the skills and capabilities of TfW and the private sector to continue delivering these priorities. We don't want to just be a delivery body; we want to be a national asset woven into the fabric of Wales."
TfW took over the running of the Wales and Borders rail franchise during the pandemic from KeolisAmey through the operator-of-last-resort mechanism. What had been a 15-year franchise arrangement with KeolisAmey had been rendered unviable by the pandemic.
On the Metro, which is now a devolved asset to the Welsh Government, Mr Price said: "It's been dubbed the 'Welsh Tube' in the º£½ÇÊÓƵ media. It is certainly a catchy headline, but it's a sign that people are starting to see what's possible when you devolve power and back it with ambition. We're applying the same approach to north Wales now through Network North Wales, with the same urgency, energy and belief. For example, we'll be delivering one of the most significant timetable changes that north Wales has seen in 40 years this May, when we're increasing the number of rail services on the North Wales coastline by around 50%. That is a genuinely significant change."
Across the network, Transport for Wales, via the Welsh Government, has invested £800m in brand new rolling stock. Mr Price added: "That's 148 trains across four different model types, each one a step change on what came before. Introducing that many new trains while keeping the network running has been a real challenge. It's involved engineering challenges, driver training, new timetables and a huge amount of coordination and blood, sweat and tears behind the scenes. But we are seeing the fruits of the team's efforts. We've replaced nearly all of the old fleet.
"The difference is real and people are noticing. We will end up, and hopefully, more with 489 carriages, which is a 81% increase on our inherited fleet numbers in 2018, and 174 trains, up from 138. We've changed the fleet, we've changed the expectations, and hopefully we're beginning to change the conversation."
On what the future holds for TfW, he said: "We know that transport is an enabler for economic growth, and there's lots more we want to do, particularly in collaboration with our partners, both public and private, to maximise that growth for the people of Wales."
Cardiff Breakfast Club is sponsored by the Western Mail, Stills Branding, Effective and Darwin Gray.
