A record number of shops closed during the first half of 2020 due to the coronavirus lockdown, new figures show – and worse is yet to come.
A total of 11,000 chain operator outlets shut between January and August this year, according to research from the Local Data Company and accountancy firm PwC.
Around 5,000 shops opened, leaving a net decline of 6,001 stores, almost double the drop during the same period last year.
But the researchers have warned that, as their study does not include sites that are temporarily closed, the full picture hasn't yet emerged.
They also warn that the ending of the furlough scheme in October, plus the scheduled end for business rates relief and VAT reductions for hospitality businesses next March, will lead to more closures.
And the possibility of further national or local lockdowns is also likely to increase the number of closures, the study warns.
Lisa Hooker, consumer markets leader at PwC, said: “We know that the pandemic will continue to impact the way we work, rest and play; however, in terms of how we shop, this isn’t new.
“What we have seen is an acceleration of existing changes in shopping behaviours alongside forced experimentation from Covid-19 restrictions.
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“We all knew that consumers were shifting to shopping online or changing their priorities in terms of the things they buy, but what Covid-19 has done is create a step-change in these underlying trends to where they have now become the new normal.”
The data shows there has been a steady rise in shop closures since 2017, when the total was 6,453, increasing by at least 1,000 almost every year.
Companies that have closed stores since the start of lockdown including John Lewis, Debenhams, Pret A Manger and TM Lewin.
Closures increased at the fastest rate in London, where they nearly doubled from the same period last year. Yorkshire and Humber saw the biggest percentage loss of stores at 3.4%, followed by London and the North East.
The highest rates of closures were seen in York, Durham and Corby, but a few areas - including South Harrow, Wantage and Sheldon - saw a small increase in shop numbers.
The sectors which have seen consistent growth over the last five years include value retailers and discount supermarkets.
The leisure sector is likely to “remain resilient” despite the demand for takeaway outlets and coffee shops, the Local Data Company said.
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It also predicted a rise in local tradesmen outlets, building products and locksmiths, as services such as banks and post offices move away from the high street.
Lucy Stainton, of the Local Data Company, said: “As with any economic turmoil, there are opportunities for retailers who are able to weather this storm, with the availability of prime property, increased activity and spend in local centres, and changing consumer habits.
“Agile retailers who are able to innovate and adapt quickly, such as Pret launching its coffee subscription service or e-bike retailer Pure Electric who have opened 13 stores this year, will be the most resilient as we head towards the end of a year which arguably has been the most challenging in recent history.”