With everyone at home at the moment, it will really take something special to entice people out, said Steve Ashworth, Food and Drink sector specialist at PKF Francis Clark, speaking before the four-week lockdown 2.0 was announced.
A Fine Food Guild food and restaurant judge and former amateur South West Chef of the Year, Steve helped hundreds of restaurants across Bristol and the South West survive lockdown 1.0.
Prior to this second lockdown, restrictions had eased for restaurants and pubs - foodie ones, at least, but is no doubt that Covid-19 has changed people's habits and businesses will have to keep up to survive - not least if lockdowns in some guise or another continue.
Steve said: "Even though people who are still in work have the money to spend, an increase in homeworking means that people aren't out and about like they were so they really have to force themselves to go out. It comes down to quality and delivery - people's appetites - if you forgive the pun - are changing in what they want in a meal and how they get it."
The big trend spotters are on to that shift already. Burger King was among the fast food outlets that relied heavily on its drive through model when the 海角视频 slowly opened up post lockdown while many of its eat-in restaurants remained closed.
Now, Burger King's biggest franchisee in the 海角视频, private equity firm Bridgepoint, is looking at restructuring its 海角视频 operations, potentially closing some .
And Canadian fast food brand Tim Hortons - which like Burger King, is owned by Restaurant Brands International (RBI) - planning a major expansion in the 海角视频, hoping to capitalise on the increased demand for drive-through dining. It aims to open an outlet in "every major city and town" over the next two years.
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Steve said: "Is the drive-through the way forward - you queue up and get your food and take it home without having contact with anyone or anything. It's not what we all would like but it seems to be the way everything is moving at the moment. What it does show is people still want a meal cooked for them and they want to recreate the dining experience at home.
The rise of takeaways and deliveries for lockdowned customers show in the bottom line for companies like Just Eat and Uber Eats. a 46% surge in global sales in the third quarter as the coronavirus pandemic kept consumers at home.
The group reported revenues of £151.4m in the three months from July to September, taking sales in the year to date to £408.3m, a rise of £110m.
And Steve said that small independents are learning from these corporate giants, adapting their offer to chase the habits of their customers.
He said: "Restaurants are going to have to adapt a little bit more and try to diversify their offer into a mixture, perhaps, of takeaway, dining in and offering recipe boxes to cook at home.
"It will be those businesses that don't adapt or change that will be the ones that struggle to come out of the winter," he said.
In Torquay, Simon Hulstone's Michelin star restaurant The Elephant has decided to do Christmas differently this year amid the continued certainty. He will be - ready for customers to cook at home, complete with photos of the finished dishes.
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In Bristol, Southampton and Portsmouth, the owner of the Casa Brasil, had to change the dining concept of his all-you-can-eat Brazilian style restaurants overnight.
Owner David Hall explained how the restaurants, all next to main cinemas, has the spectacle of cooked meat carved at the table but the accompanying buffet had to go - replaced with a choice of tapas-style sides.
The change has led to the business' best ever August in seven years serving 31,000 meals and trading in other months since lockdown being above 2019 levels.
David said: "We had to change everything - strip out the buffet, reconfigure the kitchens and rethink front of house. It was to great expense but we had no choice.
"And our customers have loved the changes, they like the choice of tapas, it's fresher, more personal and comes out hot.
"It's a change we would not have made had it not been forced upon us but it's worked out. You have to adapt and roll with the changes."
He said that there is huge demand for dining out, in fact more so now that people are forced to work from home.
He said: "We have seen an uplift Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, people are working from home and desperate to go out. The demand is greater now."
David Scott, Head of Retail and Leisure at NatWest, said that like Casa Brasil, restaurateurs have been adapting their businesses so they can still generate revenues.
He said: “A lot have adapted their business models with many providing take away service opportunities. In these situations we have seen some restaurants reducing their menu offering to deliver this service and in doing so reducing their costs. Those that have transitioned in this way have done well and it has provided additional forms of income that have allowed them to steady the ship.
"A great example of this is a business we have supported specialising in pizza. They have adapted their offering from a physical restaurant to delivering pizza kits in a box and the take-up by customers has been huge. Will they want to continue providing this service post-COVID? Yes they will. They have stimulated a new part of the business that has created customer opportunities outside of their traditional operating area, which is a great positive.
“I think fundamentally what lockdown has done is accelerate the evolution of the restaurant sector in the 海角视频 to more digital-based propositions – a transition that was already underway. And smaller businesses have been able to adapt quicker with this because of the size of their businesses.
How Covid-19 is changing how we live and work
“Crucially, there is a future for the industry; the 海角视频 consumer wants to go out and enjoy the dining experience. However, the adaptions and advancements restaurant businesses have made will be here to stay for many regardless of lockdown. Businesses have been able to develop additional revenue streams and new customer bases and they will want to keep them.”
In Totnes, organic pioneer Geetie Singh-Watson MBE, opened The Bull Inn last year, recently named Eco Hotel of the Year by The Times and Sunday Times.
She said that a month into lockdown, the team were impatient to get going again.
The team adapted how it operates, removed five tables to make additional space and became food focused. It simplified the menus and increased minimum stay to three nights to reduce turnover of guests.
She said: "We thought, who wants to go to the pub in a crisis like this but we realised that everyone is craving some kind of normality."
She said that while during the 2008 recession, there was an explosion in mid-market branded dining, the world had moved on.
She said: "I think we are in a different place now. After the 2008 recession, we saw a rise in entrepreneurship and people starting their own businesses and I think we will see that this time. There are a lot of skilled people who have found themselves out of work who will use this time to reassess what they want to do - there will be a lot of bakeries, that's my prediction.
"Suddenly, because of closures, we are seeing empty premises and kitchen equipment for sale, so I think there will be a lot of opportunities for hospitality start-ups.
"What this crisis has taught us is that things can very quickly shift and change, so we are capable of doing things differently. What we can't do is allow this crisis to push us back in what we need to do environmentally. We've got to be brave if we want to make real changes."