海角视频 retail sales experienced a near one per cent drop last month as British consumers held off on major purchases amidst Budget uncertainties. The Office for National Statistics revealed a 0.7 per cent decrease in October, following a revised 0.1 per cent increase in September, revised down from the initial 0.3 per cent figure.
In contrast, GFK's confidence survey showed an increase in consumer sentiment in November, offering some relief to businesses relying on a strong golden quarter to bolster margins ahead of next year's tax hikes.
Earlier this week, inflation exceeded the Bank of England's two per cent target, reaching 2.3 per cent, leading analysts to believe that a pre-Christmas interest rate cut is unlikely. Government borrowing also saw an increase, recording the second-highest October figure ever.
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The recent Budget announcement by Rachel Reeves, which included a massive £40bn tax raid involving changes to pensions, inheritance tax, the minimum wage, and employers' national insurance, may have discouraged spending.
The decline was primarily driven by a drop in non-food sales, with retailers attributing the fall to Budget uncertainties. However, sales volumes did see a 0.8 per cent rise in the three months to October compared to the three months to July, as reported by City AM.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a decline in non-food store sales, including department, clothing and household items, by 1.4 per cent after a significant increase of 2.3 per cent in September.
This downturn is attributed to low consumer confidence and uncertainty surrounding the Budget.
The most notable decrease within non-food sales was seen in clothing, with a drop of 3.1 per cent, while online sales experienced a downturn across all sectors. The ONS noted that "online spending values" decreased by 1.2 per cent, yet they were up by 5.0 per cent compared to October of the previous year.
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ONS senior statistician Hannah Finselbach commented: "Retail sales fell back in October following three months of growth. The fall was driven by a notably poor month for clothing stores, but retailers across the board reported consumers held back on spending ahead of the Budget.
"However, when we look at the wider trend, retail sales are increasing across the three month and annual periods, although they remain below pre-pandemic levels."
Despite the slump in retail sales, industry analysts are still eagerly anticipating the lucrative 'golden quarter'.
The British Retail Consortium pointed out that sales had risen by 1.8 per cent in value and 2.0 per cent in volume.
Kris Hamer, director of insight at the British Retail Consortium, commented: "While October produced a positive start to the 'golden quarter', with year-on-year growth for the fourth month in a row, there was a monthly decline due to pre-Budget jitters from households. Fashion took the brunt of this hit, especially as the milder weather last month put off winter purchases."
"On a brighter note, electricals performed well as consumers continued to upgrade their tech with the latest models. Health and beauty also had another strong month of sales growth, particularly with the popularity of beauty advent calendars which went on sale.
Hamer issued a warning to the government, stating: "This additional revenue is essential as retailers face over £7bn of additional costs in 2025 alone, as changes to Employers' National Insurance contributions, the increase in minimum wage, and new packaging taxes come into effect. These changes will pile pressure onto an industry that already pays far more than its fair share in business taxes, and will make job losses and store closures inevitable.
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"To avoid a cliff edge of costs in April 2025, Government must reconsider the existing timelines for the new packaging levy, while ensuring any changes to business rates offer a meaningful reduction for all retailers as early as possible."
Oliver Vernon-Harcourt, head of retail at Deloitte, commented: "After a few months of positive growth, October's retail sales figures paint a more subdued picture, with Halloween festivities failing to continue the upwards sales trajectory.
"Mild and dry weather, paired with pre-Budget uncertainty, meant that consumers opted out of shopping for seasonal clothing and chose instead to rein back their spending in the run up to the biggest shopping months of the year.
"With Black Friday on the horizon, and Christmas trade having started earlier than last year, there is some optimism that November's sales will improve, particularly if bonfire night socialising provides an additional spark of spending.
"While sales of big ticket items continue to be low, the discounting period may be the much-needed boost for retailers looking to move stock and for those consumers who have been delaying more significant purchases."
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