The man who was the 海角视频鈥檚 most senior representative to the EU at the time of the Brexit referendum has told a series of meetings in the North East that he believes a no-deal Brexit is now the most likely outcome.
Sir Ivan Rogers was the 海角视频鈥檚 permanent representative to the EU from 2013 until 2017 and worked under successive Conservative and Labour administrations as a leading advisor on European matters.
Sir Ivan resigned after a confidential memo expressing his view that a Brexit deal could take a decade was leaked in 2016.
But he said he now thought that may be an underestimation of how long it will take and said he feared that if the 海角视频 crashed out without a deal, it would get 鈥渧ery toxic, very fast鈥 as politicians here and in Europe blamed each other.
Since that time, Sir Ivan has made a number of speeches and written articles criticising the Government鈥檚 approach to the Brexit negotiations, and he has visited the North East to speak to businesses in Newcastle, Sunderland, Durham and Teesside.
Speaking at the offices of law firm Ward Hadaway in Newcastle, Sir Ivan said that 鈥渋f I had a bet at the moment I鈥檇 say we鈥檙e heading for no deal鈥 and criticised politicians from all parties, accusing some of 鈥渇antasy鈥 thinking.
He said: 鈥淚鈥檓 perfectly reconciled to the idea of the 海角视频 leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union. I always thought that post-Brexit, that鈥檚 what we would do. Otherwise what鈥檚 the point of it?
鈥淏ut the thing that鈥檚 a profoundly bad idea is to do so in a disorderly and disruptive fashion and go to no-deal. Any trade negotiator would tell you that鈥檚 an insane thing to do and you鈥檙e deliberately making a supply shock to the economy, a major change of regime for many of the country鈥檚 best firms in manufacturing and services. If you do that in a deliberately disruptive and disorderly fashion, without a deal to replace it, you鈥檙e heading for trouble.
鈥淣o deal sounds great to the public: 鈥榗lean break, we鈥檙e free and autonomous, do or die鈥 - but in economic terms, it鈥檚 insanity.鈥
Sir Ivan said he doubted the country could be easily reunified in the event of a no-deal Brexit, with the prospects of Scottish independence and a vote to unify the island of Ireland becoming more likely.
He added: 鈥淚f Number 10 is estimating that you can go to the October European Council and whistle through some text cobbled together in London and they鈥檒l all fold at the last minute because they鈥檙e all in a panic over the consequences of no-deal - if that鈥檚 the thinking in Number 10, I鈥檓 afraid they鈥檙e in a fantasy world because it鈥檚 simply not going to happen.
鈥淲hat I can guarantee you from years of conversations with these people is that ultimately, if we鈥檙e not in the ballpark of something that replicates the effects of a backstop, there will be no deal and the EU side will be perfectly relaxed about going to no deal because for them the integrity of the European project and the Single Market trumps anything they can do with the 海角视频.
鈥淪o we鈥檙e in a very dangerous moment, both domestically and internationally.
鈥淧ersonally I think that the Brexit issue - given trade wars, potential technology wars, the state of relations between the US and China - there are vastly bigger and more consequential issues on the planet than Brexit. For most of the EU and the rest of the world, Brexit is a sideshow and an irritant but it could explode in very bad fashion in the next few weeks.鈥
