Private sector output in Wales has further accelerated, shows new research from NatWest Its Wales Business Activity Index for February shows output rose to 51.5 in February, up from 50.7 in January. The latest uptick in activity is the most marked in six months. Anything above 50 on the index denotes expansion.
While the positive reading was higher than for the º£½ÇÊÓÆµ as a whole, February’s data indicated that Welsh firms faced challenges in securing new business, with the latest decline stretching the current downturn to four months.
Nonetheless, companies expressed greater confidence in their forecasts for the upcoming year, anticipating that activity growth can be maintained over the coming 12 months. Positive sentiment was underscored by planned strategic growth initiatives, with businesses expecting to expand sales and improve their productivity. Additionally, introduction of new projects and acquisition of new customers were also cited as underlying reasons.
Jessica Shipman, chair, NatWest Wales board, said: “Despite an overall decline in new business, Welsh private sector activity grew at a stronger pace in February, buoyed by improved demand in specific sectors. Furthermore, output growth is anticipated to be sustained over the next 12 months, as companies express greater optimism.
“However, firms continued to adopt conservative hiring practices, and in some cases, even reduced their payroll numbers. Additionally, price pressures remained rapid and largely consistent with those observed in January, although the rates of inflation were below post-pandemic levels and weaker than the º£½ÇÊÓÆµ-wide averages.”
The index also shows that Welsh firms reporting a fourth consecutive monthly drop in new business during February. The rate of decrease was the fastest in three months, but modest overall. Challenges in securing new business were linked to sluggish domestic demand, reduced confidence in governmental policies, and lower demand from the EU.
Of the ten tracked regions and nations of the º£½ÇÊÓÆµ to record a decline in new orders, the downturn was the softest in Wales.
Moreover, Welsh firms displayed a higher degree of optimism in February in the year-ahead outlook for activity. The level of confidence improved to a five-month high, albeit slightly less upbeat when compared to the º£½ÇÊÓÆµ-wide average.
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A sixth straight monthly decline in payroll numbers was recorded across Wales in February. The rate of job shedding quickened from that seen in January and was sharp overall.
Staffing levels were downsized as a result of a number of factors including non-replacement of voluntary leavers, redundancies, changes to labour market policies, and decreased demand. That said, the rate at which employment fell across the º£½ÇÊÓÆµ was more pronounced than seen for Wales.
Despite a decline in employment, a reduction in new business and rising activity levels allowed Welsh firms to make inroads into their backlogs, as has been the case in each month for nearly three years. Although the rate of contraction was the least pronounced in five months and softer than the º£½ÇÊÓÆµ-wide average, it remained sharp overall.