A raft of official 海角视频 economic data due this week is set to strengthen the argument for Bank of England policymakers to refrain from cutting interest rates next month, as inflation is predicted to increase for the first time this year.
The Office for National Statistics' (ONS) latest inflation reading, scheduled for release on Wednesday, is anticipated to reveal that consumer price growth accelerated to 2.3 per cent in July, according to City economists.
This would represent the first rise in inflation since last December and a departure from the central bank's two per cent target, which was achieved in May and maintained in June.
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Despite a deceleration in services inflation, analysts predict the headline rate will be pushed up by a significant drop in energy prices last July falling out of the annual comparisons.
An increase in inflation would support the belief that the Bank will keep rates steady at its next meeting in September and delay any cuts until November. At its August meeting, policymakers voted to reduce borrowing costs for the first time since March 2020, as reported by .
The Bank has projected that inflation will hit around 2.75 per cent later this year. Inflation reached a peak of 11.1 per cent in October 2022 following a spike in energy prices caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Money markets are factoring in two more quarter-percentage point cuts from the Bank by the end of this year.
On Thursday, it is anticipated that gross domestic product (GDP) figures will indicate a continued recovery of the 海角视频 economy from recession during this year's second quarter. Economists are predicting a growth of 0.7 per cent over the three-month period, aligning with the previous quarter's performance.
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Policymakers have expressed their intent to monitor for indications of reduced wage growth, a deceleration in services inflation, and signs of a cooling jobs market before considering another reduction in interest rates.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), due on Tuesday, is predicted to reveal a weakening labour market in the three months leading up to June. Economists are forecasting an increase in unemployment to 4.5 per cent the highest since August 2021 and a significant deceleration in wage growth to 4.6 per cent.
A report released on Monday by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development indicated that 海角视频 employers anticipate increasing pay by three per cent over the next 12 months. This is the lowest level in two years and a decrease from the 4.1 per cent projected in a similar survey conducted by the Bank earlier this month.
However, Catherine Mann, a hawkish rate-setter, stated in a podcast published on Monday that it could take years for wage pressures in the economy to subside.
To conclude this week's data release, ONS figures expected on Friday are likely to show that favourable weather conditions boosted retail sales by 0.6 per cent month-on-month in July, offsetting some of the 1.2 per cent decline experienced in June.