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Depth of Covid-19 economic hit revealed: Devastating blow slightly softer in Yorkshire and Humber

Decline eclipses the low of the global financial crisis

The latest Yorkshire & Humber Business Activity Index from NatWest PMI.

Business activity in the region saw a record contraction in April, as coronavirus led to the nation locking down.

The decline eclipsed the low of the global financial crisis.

According to the latest NatWest PMI survey, activity in Yorkshire & Humber fell at an unprecedented rate.

Measures to stifle the spread of Covid-19 drove widespread temporary business closures. Demand subsequently evaporated, with new orders falling at a record pace. Meanwhile, firms cut their staff numbers at the fastest rate since data collection began in January 1997.

Looking forward, optimism towards the one-year business outlook hit a record low, with some panellists fearful of a prolonged downturn.

The headline NatWest Yorkshire & Humber Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures month-on-month changes in the combined output of the region’s manufacturing and service sectors – posted 15.9 in April, down sharply from 41.2 in March. The latest reading pointed to the quickest contraction in Yorkshire & Humber business activity since the survey’s inception over 23 years ago.

At the sub-sector level, the result was driven by a broad-based reduction across both manufacturers and service providers, although the latter recorded the sharper decline. When explaining falling output, panellists often cited temporary business closures amid the coronavirus outbreak.

Underlying data suggested that services firms fared slightly worse than their manufacturing counterparts, but both sub-sectors registered historic declines.