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Caution urged as economic upturn led by service sector as manufacturing stagnates

Economic snapshot 'pins the fate of the broader recovery in a precarious position'

November's adjusted Yorkshire & Humber Business Activity Index from NatWest, IHS Markit.

The service sector is driving the continued economic upturn as manufacturers struggle with continuing supply chain issues.

The Natwest Yorkshire and Humber Business Activity Index showed continued sharp growth - the strongest for five months - but those behind the analysis said indications are it is masking stagnant output.

Inflation is also flying high, with prices hiked at a record rate to combat materials, energy and transport costs.

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Heather Waters, of the North Regional Board at NatWest, said: “At face value, a reading in the headline index of 57.3 suggests private sector business activity across Yorkshire & Humber is increasing at a sharp and healthy pace. In fact, of the 12 monitored º£½ÇÊÓÆµ areas, only three others saw quicker upturns – the North West, Wales, and London.

“However, the survey did highlight some worrying trends beneath the bonnet. The biggest concern is regarding the wide divergence in performance by sector. Activity growth in November was wholly driven by services as manufacturing output was broadly stagnant. "This pins the fate of the broader recovery in a precarious position as continued growth is dependent on one part of the economy given that the supply- related disruptions impeding manufacturers don’t look like fading any time soon.”

Heather Waters, of the NatWest North Regional Board.

Latest survey data signalled a further improvement in demand conditions faced by regional firms in November. As has been the case throughout the majority of the year-to-date, private sector employment across Yorkshire and the Humber increased strongly during November.

Greater recruitment was reportedly due to rising workloads, as well as efforts to boost capacity.