Could Ukip scupper Conservative hopes of hanging on to West Midland marginal seats?
Polling data suggests Nigel Farage’s party could rob the Tories of seats in the region, and help Labour.
Or possibly – as Ukip supporters point out – it could suggest that Ukip has a chance of coming from nowhere and winning the seats for themselves.
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The West Midlands has a number of marginal seats. That’s why it’s a favourite place for party leaders to visit during General Election campaigns.
We can look forward to seeing plenty of David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg this time around. But perhaps Ukip leader Mr Farage will be joining them.
The potential role Ukip could play in West Midland seats has been illustrated by a series of polls commissioned by Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft.
These should not be taken as a prediction of the result on May 7. They simply reveal how people said they planned to vote when they were surveyed in a series of marginal constituencies last year.
Plenty could change before polling day. But they give us an idea of the impact Ukip could potentially have.
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A striking example is the survey conducted in Halesowen and Rowley Regis. Conservatives won here in 2010, but it was close – they had 41 per cent of the vote, with Labour in second place on 37 per cent.
But the poll found Tory support had fallen, with just 34 per cent saying they planned to vote Conservative.
Labour was now in the lead, even though its share of the vote had also fallen – to 35 per cent.
What had changed was that Ukip’s share of the vote had shot up, from six per cent to 24 per cent.
It suggests Labour could take the seat, even though it appears the party has failed to win over voters and is actually losing support.
By the way, the Lib Dem share of the vote had fallen from 15 per cent in 2010 to just two per cent, according to the poll. One might expect some of those Lib Dems to have shifted to Labour, making the fall in Labour’s vote even more disappointing.
Ukip has always argued that it is winning support from a broad cross-section of society, including former Labour voters and people who simply haven’t voted in the past.
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But it does appear that they are winning over former Conservative voters in particular.
There are different ways of interpreting what’s happened in Halesowen and Rowley Regis.
One view would be that the Ukip vote could hand these seats to Labour, even though Labour is failing to win over voters.
When I suggested this in a piece on the Post website recently, some commenters said the figures actually showed Ukip were in with a chance of winning seats.
And Ukip supporters could certainly find encouragement in the polling data for Cannock Chase, in Staffordshire.
Tories took this seat from Labour in 2010, winning 40 per cent of the vote compared to 33 per cent for Labour.
But polling found that just 27 per cent of the constituency’s voters said they intended to vote Conservative – with 32 per cent backing Labour and 30 per cent backing Ukip.
Once again, Labour could win the seat, even though it has actually lost support since 2010.
However, the poll put Ukip in a close second place.
Ukip supporters could argue that the choice in Cannock Chase is between them and Labour.
And they could say the same about Dudley North.
In 2010, this was a Labour/Conservative marginal. Labour held the seat with 39 per cent of the vote, compared to 37 per cent for the Conservatives.
But polling shows Labour is still in first place, with the support of 37 per cent of voters – while Ukip is second, with the support of 34 per cent. Conservatives are third, on just 24 per cent of the vote.
So this poll suggests that the choice in Dudley North is between Ukip and Labour.
It may very well be that voting intentions will change before the election.
Surveys conducted last year may partly reflect the level of publicity Ukip received during the European rlections.
How people said they intended to vote, when asked last year, may not be the same as how they actually vote some months later.
It’s always possible that Nigel Farage’s appeal will start to wane over time, as the novelty wears off.
Attention may turn increasingly to the question of who forms the next government – and that’s going to be either the leader of the Conservative Party or the leader of the Labour Party, albeit possibly in partnership with other parties.
And polls, of course, can simply be wrong.
I’m not suggesting any of the poll results quoted above reveal how people will actually vote in the May 7 election.
But I believe that it is reasonable to conclude that Ukip is causing problems for the Conservatives in parts of the West Midlands – and could potentially cost them seats.