Wales’ airport sector is significantly underweight relative to the size of the Welsh economy and population. The vast majority of Welsh passengers and international visitors to Wales rely on English airports.
This is in stark contrast to other 海角视频 nations. For example, English, Scottish and Northern Irish airports carry approximately four passengers per head of population each year – in Wales it is less than one tenth that number.
Of course, a main issue is how the location of Wales’s only international airport, Cardiff Airport, which 10 plus miles from Cardiff city centre and major surface transport links and the Bristol Channel (and therefore no population to serve) on the other side.
The key point is that this matters for the Welsh economy. Academic studies (e.g from US and Europe) show a clear, causal link between international airport access and productivity (and therefore GDP and wages) and employment.
This means that Wales is likely poorer than it would be if it had the same level of aviation provision as other 海角视频 nations. And, as of today, Welsh air travellers support airport jobs and promote productivity in England rather than Wales – the opposite of ‘levelling-up’.
Likewise, Wales’s international inbound tourism sector is materially underperforming its potential () it is self-evident that the fact that – with a few exceptions – international visitors cannot travel directly to Wales is to its detriment as an international destination.
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And taking a narrower fiscal perspective, whilst the Welsh Government’s decision to buy Cardiff Airport in 2013 was based on evidence and advice at the time, the current model may not represent best value for money for expenditure long term (a government grant is still required, and sooner or later a significant capital programme will prove necessary).
So what’s the way forward?
Various ideas for a new airport been thrown around over many years – a recurring theme is a new hub on the M4 and Great Western Mainline between Cardiff and Bristol, most likely near the Severn Bridge (which side of the border is less important).
A powerful idea – and necessary condition – here is one of sharing or pooling airport facilities, in this case with Bristol and south-west England i.e. relocating both Cardiff and Bristol airports to a single site with outstanding surface access links that is optimal from the point of view of the whole of south-west Britain.
Doing so could create an airport of 20 million plus passengers per year: a real heavyweight facility and one of the largest in the 海角视频 outside of London. There are several successful examples of cities sharing airport facilities to punch above their individual weight – including across borders e.g. EuroAirport Basel (Switzerland) – Freiburg (Germany) – Mulhouse (France), and Baltimore (Maryland) – Washington (DC).
Compared to the status quo, key advantages of this arrangement in SW Britain could include:
Access to more destinations and markets: With a superior location, greater catchment and far better transport links, an airport near the Severn Bridge would likely be attractive for routes (e.g. to Middle and Far East and North America) that are currently not viable. This could have real economic benefits, for example in terms of exporting, attracting tourists and giving the Welsh population access to the world.
Efficiency: A consolidated airport could help avoid duplication of (considerable) fixed costs (both for airlines and airports), with benefits being passed on to passengers through lower fares and/or airport owners (including the Welsh Government)
Environment: Bigger planes mean fewer emissions per passenger. To illustrate the current issue, KLM operates around seven flights a day between Amsterdam and a combination of Cardiff and Bristol airports, using some of the smallest aircraft in its fleet. Rationalising the offering at a single location using larger planes could maintain the customer offer whilst reducing carbon emissions.
Vehicle emissions and congestion: A new airport near the Severn bridge would be a 20 minute train ride to both central Cardiff and Bristol, facilitating a step-change in public transport access to airports in SW Britain. This could have big impacts on vehicle emissions and congestion. As an illustration, it could result in a few percentage point reduction in traffic using Newport’s notorious Brynglas Tunnels – whilst this does not sound like much, given how road congestion works, it could significantly reduce disruption at this bottleneck
Financial: A new airport would likely cost billions of pounds. But large, well-run airports can be very profitable. When coupled with the fact that the existing Cardiff Airport site – in the well-heeled Vale of Glamorgan – could be used in whole or in part for housing, a new airport near the Severn Bridge could conceivably (although not definitely) save money for Welsh Government
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These ideas have been mooted for decades, but dismissed previously. Why are they any more valid now? There are a few key reasons:
Cardiff Airport: its current location, has not been able to deliver full potential for Wales. Through its investment in Cardiff Airport, Welsh Government has demonstrated its view that Wales needs its own international airport. To date, supporting Cardiff Airport was the logical and financially prudent approach: with the assets already there, anything else would have been foolhardy. But as time has progressed, evidence has mounted that Cardiff Airport at its current location may not be commercially viable and – more importantly – is not capable of delivering the benefits to the Welsh economy and society that a better located facility could.
Capacity constraints at Bristol Airport: Bristol Airport is approaching capacity. Whilst short-term fixes are possible (and planned), given its single short runway and lack of rail and motorway access, it is only a matter of time before more radical solutions become necessary.
South Wales Metro. The Metro is fast becoming a reality. Not only does this help put circa two millon people within a short train ride of a new airport near the Severn Bridge, the scheme has demonstrated that Welsh Government is capable of making economically transformational infrastructure a reality (even when doing so is outside of its formal powers).
So, where next?
To be clear, a new airport on the border would be costly (several billion pounds) and decades (not years) in the making. Indeed, it may be that a careful, detailed examination reveals a new consolidated airport for south-west Britain near Severn Bridge may simply not stack up on economic, financial and/or environmental grounds.
But the potential benefits to Wales (and wider south-west Britain) – connecting the region to the rest of the world in a way that is unimaginable under today’s aviation provision – mean it is at least worth exploring properly.
This conclusion was also reached (based on many of the same arguments as this article) by Professor Mark Barry of Cardiff University – and the architect of the South Wales Metro – in an excellent on the future of Cardiff Airport last year.
Welsh Government has shown leadership before – not least with the South Wales Metro. It may therefore wish to start serious exploration of long-term options for aviation assets serving south-west Britain as a whole to deliver real benefits to the economy and society. This means identifying options, assessing costs and financials, and exploring the economic and environmental impacts in full.
Two things will be key to moving things forward. First, thinking carefully and creatively about the environmental impacts. Whilst shifting journeys to and from the airport to public transport, moving passengers to bigger planes and using modern construction techniques will help, the fact remains that aviation is one of the most carbon-intensive means of travel.
But – whether Welsh people travel from facilities mainly serving England or Wales – flying is here to stay. Developing a brand-new facility – and potentially a complementary policy environment – presents Wales with an opportunity to push the boundaries globally in developing a more sustainable aviation industry (for example encouraging use of the most efficient aircraft and sustainable aviation fuels).
Second, Welsh Government will need work closely with stakeholders. Bristol Airport in particular – and its owners the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan – will be key.
But given the long-term prize for Bristol Airport of transforming its business in south-west Britain from a medium-sized airport dominated by low-cost and charter traffic into a world-class facility serving diversified and high-margin set of airlines and destinations, the commercial incentives may well be aligned.
Support from the 海角视频 Government will also be instrumental. The upcoming general election could unlock opportunities for collaboration, and backing a new airport for Wales and SW England would be a striking commitment to ‘levelling-up’ for a new 海角视频 government – whatever its colour.
Wales’s new First Minister will face a full inbox in March. Prioritising a bold approach to aviation in Wales could be one of the most significant contributions to putting Wales on the global map and growing the Welsh economy made by a Welsh leader since devolution a quarter of a century ago.
- Joel Strange is director in Grant Thornton's economic consulting practice. He writes here in a personal capacity.