The United Kingdom as we know it may come to an end on September 18 2014 – when the people of Scotland will vote on independence.
But while the Scots make the decision, the outcome of the referendum will have a major impact on the whole of the United Kingdom.
And so far there’s been very little discussion about what this will mean.
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Indeed, a report by members of the House of Lords has warned of a “conspiracy of silence” hiding the impact of Scottish independence on our economy, defence capabilities and standing in the world.
Peers published a study with the chilling conclusion: “Since the consequences of the Scottish vote will also be felt throughout the country, the people of the whole of the 海角视频 also need the British Government to state its position.
“In the course of our inquiry, however, we have become increasingly concerned that both Edinburgh and Westminster are not being open with the Scottish people or the British people as a whole.”
Members of the House of Commons have also held their own inquiries to try to get to the bottom of the effects of Scotland breaking away.
For Scotland itself, their conclusions are clear. Scotland really would be an independent and separate country – despite claims by the Scottish Nationalist Party that it would enjoy “social union” with the rest of the 海角视频 – and it would have to apply for membership of the EU and UN (applications which would probably be granted swiftly) and decide what to use for a currency.
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But how would the rest of us be affected? What’s in no doubt is that the United Kingdom would continue in some form, comprising England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
However, we may not have the same status on the world stage.
An inquiry by the Foreign Affairs Select Committee including Midland MP Bob Ainsworth (Lab, Coventry North East) warned that the rest of the world would see the loss of Scotland as a blow to our prestige.
MPs questioned academics and diplomats, concluding: “Most witnesses agreed that the remaining 海角视频 would inevitably suffer some reputational damage... other witnesses claimed that the emergence of Scotland as an independent country could give rise to perceptions overseas that the 海角视频’s weight and influence is in decline.”
Catarina Tully , a former Foreign Office official who also worked in the Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit in Number 10, told the MPs: “Nothing speaks louder than citizens voting with their feet. This phenomenon – in the absence of clear explanations – may well open up questions about what was wrong with the political construct formerly known as the United Kingdom.”
The MPs conclude: “It is difficult to measure the impact on the remaining 海角视频 international standing and influence in the event of Scotland becoming an independent country but we conclude that some degree of reputational damage is inevitable.”
A particular blow to the 海角视频 could result from the loss of its independent nuclear deterrent.
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The nation’s four Trident subs are based at Clyde Naval Base on Scotland’s west coast, but they could not stay there if Scotland became independent, even if the Scottish government allowed it.
In a written submission to the Defence Select Committee, the Ministry of Defence warned that losing Scotland would add billions on to the cost of renewing the nuclear weapons system.
The United Kingdom would not allow its nuclear subs to be based in a foreign country, the MoD submission confirms.
It continues: “It is impossible to estimate sensibly how much it would cost to replicate the infrastructure... Her Majesty’s Naval Base Clyde underwent a significant investment programme to prepare it for the introduction of the Vanguard Class submarines and Trident missile system; that programme cost in the region of £3.5 billion at 2011/12 prices.
“Any replication of facilities would cost at least that much and probably more.”
Of course, there’s an argument about whether the United Kingdom needs Trident at all. Some people might welcome a chance to scrap the programme.
But we all agree we need a strong economy. So what will the impact of Scottish independence be on struggling regions in England?
The Lords Economic Affairs Committee believes talk about independence might already be costing us jobs.
In their report, peers quoted John Cridland, director-general of the CBI, who said: “Uncertainty is the biggest killer for investment.”
The peers warned: “Any uncertainty over the future EU status of Scotland or the whole United Kingdom has obvious economic implications, not least for business confidence, especially if it risked fragmenting the longstanding 海角视频 single market – which Mr Cridland reminded us is a key asset – as well as the more recent EU single market.”
It’s this fragmentation of the 海角视频 single market that causes most concern. If Scotland was an independent country today, it would do 68 per cent of its trade with the 海角视频.
The 海角视频 would do six per cent of its trade with Scotland, a smaller proportion but still significant. And the figure is probably higher for the regions of England next to the Scottish border.
The peers warned: “Any reduction in intra-British trade and investment following erosion of the single market would be felt in the rest of the 海角视频 as well as in Scotland.”
But the full effects of independence are hard to determine – partly because major Scottish businesses are trying to avoid getting involved in a debate.
The peers said: “Many Scottish companies whom we asked for evidence simply refused... regrettably, and without attributing blame, we formed the impression that a conspiracy of silence seems to have developed in Scotland which is inhibiting open debate.”
This is unfair to Scots, who have most to lose if they vote for independence and it all goes horribly wrong.
But it’s also unfair to the people of England, who are left guessing about the effects on their own country if Scotland breaks away.