The West Midlands could find itself sandwiched between London in the south and a new mega-city in the north, if Chancellor George Osborne gets his way.
He has adopted an idea set out by BBC journalist Evan Davis, the new presenter of Newsnight, in a television documentary earlier this year.
Davis suggested creating one giant city in the north which would be able to compete with London on something like equal terms.
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This didn’t mean concreting over the entire north of England. Rather, it meant creating a transport network fast and efficient enough that Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle and Liverpool effectively became a single place, at least as far as the economy was concerned.
This would “turn the great cities of northern England into one large travel-to-work area,” in Mr Davis’ words.
It was an interesting thought. What nobody foresaw at the time was that it would be adopted wholesale by the Government.That, however, is what’s happened.
George Osborne, the Chancellor, set out his vision for a “Northern Powerhouse” earlier this month.
Fuller details will be “a centrepiece of my Autumn Statement”, the economic statement he delivers to Parliament in November or December, he said.
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But the outline is already clear.
Speaking to council leaders from Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield and Newcastle at an event in Manchester, Mr Osborne said: “Modern economists have spoken about the economic benefits when a critical mass of people, businesses and infrastructure are brought together in a large city.
“The whole is then greater than the sum of its parts.
“Our great northern cities represented here individually are quite small on the global stage – but combined they rival in size London or New York or Tokyo.”
He added: “If we can bring our northern cities closer together – not physically, or in some artificial political construct – but by providing modern transport connections, supporting great science and our universities here, giving more power and control to civic government; then we can create a northern powerhouse with the size, the population, the political and economic clout, to be as strong as any global city.”
Success could mean that the economy of the north, and therefore the 海角视频, grew by an extra £43 billion, he said.
But failure meant “our whole country will not only fail to reach its potential, but will become increasingly unbalanced and unhealthily dependent on the success of that undisputed global city, London”.
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What does this mean in practice?
Mr Osborne set out five key milestones to make the plan a reality:
l The first is the publication earlier this month of a report by local authorities in the north calling for investment of up to £15 billion to improve transport links in the region. Mr Osborne said the Government would take the report and “work on delivering its component parts”.
l Government chief scientist Mark Walport is currently working with North universities to determine a scientific field which the region can become a world leader in, such as nuclear technology or materials. He will report his findings in September.
l High speed rail chief executive Sir David Higgins is looking at the prospect of building a high speed line across the Pennines, linking the North East and North West, and he will report his findings in October.
l In November, Mr Osborne will set out proposals to give cities more autonomy and cash – in return for them agreeing to transform local government by introducing directly-elected mayors.
l And the Autumn Statement, likely to be in late November or early December, will bring all these elements together in a “long term economic plan for this Northern Powerhouse... a plan to build it, with a plan to pay for it,” in Mr Osborne’s words.
Whether Mr Osborne really will provide the investment needed to achieve all this remains to be seen. We may find out in December.
There’s also a General Election due in 2015, and it’s unlikely much progress will be made before then. However, Mr Osborne’s plans will be in the Tory election manifesto – and Labour will be under pressure to match them.
And even if the cash is forthcoming, will Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield and Newcastle really become a single economic area, an effective global city to match New York or Tokyo?
But what we know for a fact is that the Chancellor claims they will, and says he is committed to making this happen.
The question facing Birmingham and the West Midlands is what this means for us.
We’re not included in the “Northern Powerhouse”.
Mr Osborne has made it clear he sees the West Midlands as a separate entity, and is expected to deliver a speech about the region soon.
It will be up to the West Midlands’ civic and business leaders to decide whether to treat the prospect of an economic mega city in the North as a threat, or an opportunity.