Tata's takeover of Jaguar Land Rover has been an unqualified triumph, the single biggest industrial 海角视频 success story of recent years.
It has created thousands of new jobs and secured the livelihoods of tens of thousands of workers across the West Midlands and further afield for decades to come.
But what if the Tata takeover had stalled as the recession took grip? What if the Ford talks of August 2007 had not begun until six or nine months later, when the economic world was about to change forever? What if the timings had been slightly different and Ratan Tata had not kept his nerve in the face of the worst automotive downturn in the West for 40 years...what if?
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THE view from Fort Dunlop was as bleak as the icy December gale which buffeted the wasteland that had for decades housed Jaguar Cars, one of the world’s best known motoring names.
It’s Christmas 2014 and the vast desolate emptiness of a factory site which had once provided Spitfire aircraft for the battle against Hitler and luxury Jaguars in peacetime told its own depressing story.
It was now three years since Jaguar had finally closed its doors at Castle Bromwich, ending many decades of manufacturing tradition synonymous with world-class design and premium motoring.
The knock-on effect on the West Midlands economy had been traumatic.
Dozens of supply firms, from owner-managed SMEs to one-man bands, had slimmed down drastically. Elsewhere, many had gone under.
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Some put the overall jobs toll at 20,000, even 30,000.
Unite union veteran Tony Woodley, the union boss who had once helped save Rover from the abyss, albeit temporarily, had said: “The workers at Jaguar and thousands of others in the supply chain have paid a terrible price for the sheer greed of the banks back in the so-called boom years.
“Many thousands of West Midland manufacturing jobs have gone for good, never to return.
“The lives of many, many people have been turned upside down.”
Erdington MP Jack Dromey said: “This has been a nightmare for thousands of families in the West Midlands, which has suffered more than its fair share of blows in recent years.
“If we are elected next spring, Labour will do its utmost to support what is left of the West Midland manufacturing sector.
“We cannot afford another Jaguar.”
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Birmingham’s best-loved historian Carl Chinn said: “The West Midlands will neither forgive nor forget this. The loss of MG Rover at Longbridge was bad enough – to lose Jaguar less than 10 years later is more than this region can take.
“This has forced thousands onto the breadline.”
The Castle Bromwich factory had followed in a long line of West Midland industrial casualties, from MG Rover to LDV, Alstom to HP Sauce, the Peugeot Ryton plant to Massey Ferguson at Coventry.
Tens of thousands of well-paid manufacturing jobs had gone to the wall over nearly 15 years.
The unemployment rate in the region had rocketed to 15 per cent. Homes were repossessed and food banks were inundated.
It could have been so different, but the die had been cast for Castle Bromwich back in 2008.
Ford had been negotiating with Indian global industrial colossus Tata for months over the purchase of Jaguar Land Rover but the onset of the worst financial meltdown in living memory had caused the Indians to retrench as banks across the Western World teetered on the verge of collapse.
The wise owl that was Ratan Tata, chairman of a global empire employing more than half a million people, reluctantly pulled back from a 2.3 billion takeover deal with Ford as menacing stormclouds gathered over the Western World’s economy.
Ford, which had been looking to offload Jaguar and Land Rover for some time, had little choice but to act.
Jaguar had been haemorrhaging cash for years, and the Americans could afford no more bailouts as the recession wreaked havoc with the Detroit balance sheet.
Castle Bromwich had been the obvious target.
Ford had warned of last-chance saloons for Jaguar, and the ageing Birmingham factory was prime candidate for the chop. Ford left Halewood afloat on Merseyside, and pulled the plug on Castle Bromwich, choosing to concentrate on Land Rover at Solihull.
Ford had continued to contract in the 海角视频, closing its Transit van assembly plant in Southampton in 2013, and remained hopeful of selling Jaguar and Land Rover, with Tata still frequently touted as likely bidders.
But it was too late now for Castle Bromwich.
Meanwhile, Tata had gone from strength to strength in the intervening years, now employing more than half a million people worldwide across cars, steel, tea, hotels, jewellery and other sectors.
Carl Chinn added: “It seems as if Jaguar workers in Birmingham have paid a truly terrible price for the recession.
“The West Midlands can only speculate as to what could have been achieved at Castle Bromwich if the Tata deal had gone through back in 2008.”
* With apologies to Tony Woodley, Carl Chinn and Jack Dromey.