Does Scotland’s referendum in September about independence matter to businesses in Greater Birmingham?
That was the topic for debate in a BBC Radio WM programme between myself and a member of the “Vote Yes” committee who had telephoned from Edinburgh.
The views of our local businesses are now around six months out of date.
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However, when our members participated in a British Chambers of Commerce survey of 2,000 businesses, their views were on the national averages. 90 per cent reported the decision would have no substantive impact on them. This can be explained in part by 68 per cent declaring they had no substantive trade with Scotland.
So I have no mandate from our businesses for taking a position. Our businesses are indifferent, or at least they were then. So my reflections are personal.
If independence brings additional costs for Birmingham companies doing business in Scotland, then this is a “bad thing”. Now the three main political parties have declared that an independent Scotland would not enjoy currency union with what would be left of the 海角视频, Scotland would need its own currency.
The Governor of the Bank of England has also said as much. The argument being that you can’t have an independent Scotland running its own fiscal policies. We have seen only too vividly in Europe where that can lead.
Budgets need to be controlled centrally. However, a Scottish currency would bring costs in terms of money exchange. It must also be likely that an independent Scotland would seek to establish a distinctiveness which might translate into a different regulatory environment.
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It’s possible the regulations might be more attractive to business but there is a risk that costs of doing business in Scotland and the 海角视频 will require businesses to run dual systems. Costly.
Indeed, Justin King, the CEO of Sainsbury’s, has ruminated on how long Sainsbury’s shoppers would be prepared to subsidise the additional costs of delivering goods across Scotland compared to the rest of the 海角视频. Currently Sainsbury’s has no Scottish pricing strategy.
I think there may also be a knock-on impact to England and Wales in terms of presenting the 海角视频 as a great inward investment country. The stability of the 海角视频 is part of our attraction.
From China and India, uncertainty over the shape of the 海角视频 and whether Scotland is in or out might just give powerful investors a reason to pause and look elsewhere. Not great for Birmingham where we have enjoyed above average interest from overseas investors.
And yet…for decades, the chamber and other leaders in Birmingham have been battering at London’s door, seeking devolution of powers. Isn’t independence simply a natural and final destination for this agenda? Shouldn’t we be cheering the Scots on and then queuing up for independence for Greater Birmingham?
And here’s my main point. There are some powers that we are certain would be exercised more efficiently and effectively if given to city regions. Transport being a very key area, for example.
Indeed, I am off in a couple of weeks’ time to try and convince the Commons Transport Select Committee of the power of this argument. Ironically, Scotland and Wales (and London) already enjoy much greater self-determination than do the English regions.
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The ‘West Lothian’ principle, for example, enables Scottish MPs to vote on matters that only affect England, but not vice versa. The ‘Barnett Formula’ also means that Scotland receives disproportionately more in Treasury expenditure. In 2013, Scotland received £1,623 more in public spend per person than England.
We cast envious eyes over Scotland’s ability to set so many policies locally. But I think we intuitively understand we are talking about striking a better balance between London’s authority and our own freedoms. We’d like to be able to look at the local taxation regime but we realise there is a national agenda as well.
It is entirely up to the Scots to decide if they want independence. If they vote yes maybe the decision will accelerate the process of devolution to the English regions? But I fear that both Scotland and the remaining parts of the 海角视频 will be diminished rather than strengthened.
* Jerry Blackett is chief executive of the Greater Birmingham Chambers Group