Cardiff Airport has announced a new arrival. Wayne Harvey, senior managing partner for Deloitte in Wales, will become its new chair next month.
He faces a huge challenge.
Even before the full impact of pandemic was felt, Flybe, the airline that provided 41% of aircraft movements and 27% passenger numbers, finally folded. The airport has seen growth since the Welsh Government acquisition in 2013.
Rising from the nadir of 1,013,386 passengers in 2012 to 1,656,677 in 2019. Even so, the numbers fall well short of its peak of 2,111,148 passengers achieved in 2007.
Coronavirus and its aftermath will present the greatest ever challenge to the commercial aviation sector. Daily, the media is full of stories of airlines on the brink, looking for government bailouts and shedding jobs.
On the face of it, the prospects for Cardiff Airport look miserable. But, in a perverse way, the chaos in aviation could be an opportunity. Before you dismiss me as certifiable, let me explain.
The pandemic has changed business models at supersonic pace. Changes that would previously take years are happening overnight. In normal times there are rigidities in every established organisation. They present a barrier to change. Today, those rigidities are melting away and the barriers are coming down. Survival is a powerful catalyst for innovation – “necessity is the mother of invention” as they say.
These rigidities were evident in the aviation sector. Airlines followed a herd mentality, concentrating on established airports with proven passenger demand. Any spare aircraft would be allocated to routes offering the best load factors.
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Cardiff Airport always struggled to meet airline’s commercial expectations. In a straight choice between Bristol and Cardiff airports, Bristol would almost always win, unless Cardiff could find ways of significantly reducing the risk for airlines.
But as we move forward, the new normal for the aviation sector, will demand a new way of thinking. With so much uncertainty it’s difficult to predict the future, but rebuilding air travel will depend upon a complex mix of growng passenger demand whilst providing what I call “safe capacity”.
It will be impossible to provide a safe environment on aircraft, where social distancing is next to impossible. This means there must be on controls and restrictions in place before passengers get on the plane.
So, procedures for testing passengers for Covid-19, will be needed at the airport and even before people get to the airport. Therefore, the responsibility to deliver safe capacity will fall on airports and governments, sometimes in partnership with the major airline at an airport, such as Emirates in Dubai.
This requirement will create major issues for busier airports and hubs. The CEO of Heathrow Airport has already suggested that social distancing will cause 1 kilometre queues at the airport. If you add the need for testing passengers to that, it will be impossible for the busier airports to operate as before.
These challenges will impact on Bristol Airport. EasyJet have around 15 aircraft based there. This means that, at certain times of the day, the majority of aircraft depart within a short space of time, such as early morning. It will be extremely difficult for them to offer safe capacity and social distancing to departing passengers in such a limited time slot.
EasyJet and other airlines will be desperate to get their fleet in the air and rebuild passenger confidence. One option, of course, is to downsize and mothball parts of the fleet but this will be costly. Alternatively, they may seek other airports offering additional safe capacity.
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I think Cardiff Airport should be exploring this possibility. With some imagination and ingenuity, Cardiff could offer certain advantages. Firstly, it’s owned by the Welsh Government, so they should be able to work in conjunction with Public Health Wales to offer pre-boarding testing – either remotely or on-site. Secondly, there are no night-time curfews at Cardiff, so with the support of the Welsh Government, additional night-time operations may be possible.
Thirdly, the airport has experience of creating additional temporary terminal facilities around major sporting events, and it also has the land space to do so. Finally, it is already under utilised.
With British Airways and Virgin Atlantic threatening to cease operations at Gatwick in favour of Heathrow, the idea of Cardiff Airport attracting new airlines, even for a limited period may seem far-fetched.
But without imagination and ambition, the future for Cardiff Airport will be bleak. Now is the time for government ownership to be turned into a real benefit. Can Cardiff Airport rise to the challenge of rebuilding confidence in air travel and being an exemplar airport for safe capacity?
Airlines are desperately looking for a lifeline, can Cardiff Airport be an unlikely provider?
- Roger Pride is managing director of brand agency .