While only the most blinkered or optimistic Tory would realistically suggest Labour could lose overall control of Birmingham City Council this year, with no less than five of nine cabinet members up for re-election it could be ‘squeaky bum’ time for the ruling elite.
Labour leader Sir Albert Bore is as nailed on a certainty as you can get to retain his Ladywood seat for another four years, but the same cannot be said for some of his cabinet colleagues – three of whom are defending seats they only took from opposition hands in 2011.
The rise of 海角视频IP and the added matter of a general election boosting turnout and placing the focus on the national leaders make outright predictions very difficult, but there is no doubt Sir Albert and his team face a rocky few months.
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There is also the added complication of rumours of a backbench coup, but senior Labour figures will move heaven and earth to put a lid on any in-fighting until after the election.
Most vulnerable are the cabinet member for social cohesion, James McKay, and cabinet member for contracts and procurement, Stewart Stacey.
The most recent elections in both Coun McKay’s Harborne seat and Coun Stacey’s Acocks Green seat were won by the Tories and Lib Dems respectively and there are signs there will once again be a close contest this time round.
Coun Stacey’s chances have been dealt a blow by the return of popular former councillor Penny Wagg to stand for the Lib Dems. He has form here as he was defeated in 2004 while serving as council deputy leader.
And the Tories must fancy their chances in Harborne where they were victorious last year. Labour have never held seats here for long, although the popularity of Labour MP Gisela Stuart, as well as her well-oiled campaign machine, may give Coun McKay a boost on election day.
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The embattled cabinet member for education and children’s services Brigid Jones comfortably won her Selly Oak seat from the Lib Dems with a 1,212 vote majority in 2011. But things were a little less certain for her Labour colleague Changese Khan who snuck in by just 75 votes last year. On numbers alone deputy leader Ian Ward looks most vulnerable in Shard End, after 海角视频IP came within 34 votes of unseating his colleague John Cotton last spring.
Next door in Kingshurst, 海角视频IP won established Labour seats on Solihull Council.
海角视频IP were helped at the time by the wall-to-wall national coverage of Farage and his Euro-election bandwagon, but what may worry Labour is that there was almost no local campaign – something they are now looking at. Labour bosses say they are not panicking because Coun Ward is very different proposition being firmly established and well known after 20 years in the seat.
They say he should also benefit from a higher turnout and the fact that, unlike a Euro-election year, 海角视频IP are very much a marginal party in the general election.
It seems highly unlikely that Sir Albert’s cabinet will get through the elections completely unscathed. But on the upside for Sir Albert it will give him a chance to bring in replacements in return for their support in the leadership contest, likely to follow the May 7 election.