Last week Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced plans to grow the economy including with fast-tracked privately funded mega projects. South Wales has high unemployment levels. An airport of the size envisaged would provide that economic growth generator which Reeves says is vital.
However, she is backing construction of a third runway and a sixth terminal at London Heathrow Airport to create a ‘national’ super world hub. One might think that will help residents in south Wales have more flight options and so benefit Wales’ economy. Both are unlikely.
The argument is that Heathrow will be come a world hub for the º£½ÇÊÓƵ. This makes little sense when considering the long land journey from north and south Wales. For those residents, the creation of increased services from big hub airports would provide shorter overall journey times. These would include Manchester for north Wales, Birmingham for mid-Wales and a Western Gateway Airport (WGA) in south-east Wales.
South-east England has an overheated economy with high wages, is over-polluted, over-congested, with little suitable land available and at premium prices.
Runway capacity is only part of the inadequate transport infrastructure argument against expanding Heathrow. The M4/M25 are running above capacity on the sections near Heathrow. The National Air Traffic Control chief executive made clear back in 2002 that the “air space over south-east England cannot support any new routes without serious implication. “
So where should this brand new major international airport be located?
This column avoids identifying an exact location for a new south-east Wales airport as there are several contenders not least Cardiff and Bristol international airports who would oppose any plan to close their sites. Other sites have been suggested: Severnside airport projecting into the estuary; Llanwern steelworks site positioned alongside the M4 and main line railway – but now a housing development.
The most recent study of such an airport was in 2013 by Western Gateway – a group of south Wales university transport and business academics (including myself) working with Welsh Government and local business organisations. The estimated cost at the time was £28bn to provide an airport with a wide range of business and leisure destinations: an international 21st century global airport.
It will do for Wales what Schiphol does for the Netherlands and Dublin for Ireland (both small countries) – link and advertise Wales directly to most of the world. The tourism benefits will be considerable.
An estimated 26,000 new jobs would be created, directly by the airport and ancillary freight, retail, airline and supply chain businesses. Many technical skills will be needed from the local area which cannot be brought from other airports.
The catchment area for passengers, the level of passenger demand and easy travel to and from the airport will determine success.
The analysis suggested the GWA world hub would attract Cardiff and Bristol airports passengers and divert travellers from London and Birmingham airports, determined mainly by road or rail journey times. The diversion rate is expected to be 20% of travellers from southern England and the borders; 50% from south-west England; and 50% of south Wales travellers – currently 80% of whom use outside-Wales airports. Demand is expected to reach 14 million passengers.
The WGA plan envisages a high-speed London Heathrow to WGA railway service operating at 250mph providing inter-lining airline passengers with a 35-minute journey time from Heathrow terminal five – less than moving between Heathrow’s terminals 1 and 5. A third rail and road Severn crossing would facilitate this.
The existing GWR service with track speed increases achieving a 90-minute journey time could still attract a large part of that home market, but not for inter-lining airline passengers. Any site must be adjacent to or easily accessible from the M4 linked into the catchment area.
As usual Wales viewed from Westminster is well below the radar (pun intended). It extends no further than the home counties for both Labour and Conservative governments. The º£½ÇÊÓƵ Government does not see any international hub other than at Heathrow. Even Gatwick is a ‘holiday airport’. It cannot conceive of a south Wales Schiphol.
The new Polish hub airport (CPK) at Lotz, 75 miles from Warsaw, due to open in 2032 will create 150,000 jobs. Lotz, like south Wales, suffered from the decline of old industry (textiles there coal, and steel here) with the airport being the economic growth mega-project. If the Labour governments of Starmer – Reeves and Eluned Morgan really are working together as they claim, then building WGA would be action not words.
- Professor Stuart Cole CBE is Emeritus Professor of Transport (Economics and Policy) at the University of South Wales.
