So far I've been fairly agnostic about High Speed Rail (HSR), probably because I think both the benefits and downsides have been overstated. But the case for HSR now seems to have shifted onto its possible role in boosting regional regeneration in the West Midlands.
On this, as the leading planner Sir Peter Hall noted recently, the debate boils down to two key issues critical to our future prosperity. The first is whether, by bringing the Midlands and North closer to the global economic powerhouse of London, it can transform economic prospects in the regions.
Second is how those benefits will be distributed across regions such as the West Midlands: that is, whether the benefits will be concentrated in a few core cities (think Birmingham), or will be spread across the wider region (such as to Coventry, Stafford, Stoke or Worcester)? Or as Sir Peter put it, whether HS2 will 'irrigate' the wider region, or turn parts of it into a desert?
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Comparative research on the 海角视频 and France, undertaken by Hall's colleague , is striking: there is a danger of creating deserts, but well-designed regional policies can indeed irrigate the regions.
Chia-Lin Chen has compared investment in (slowish) high speed rail in the 海角视频 since the 1970s with that in super-fast TGVs in France from the 1990s. She found that over time both capitals, London and Paris, kept an economic lead over other regions, but that in France the gap gradually reduced whereas in the 海角视频 they widened.
Furthermore, in both countries HSR boosted economic growth in the core cities it connected (such as Cardiff, Leeds and Manchester in the 海角视频, and Lille in France). And in both it failed to help regenerate other places that weren't so well placed.
But Chen highlights how in France a powerful and well-funded regional authority, the Conseil Régional Nord-Pas-de-Calais, invested in new services connecting old industrial and port cities with Paris, along with a regional TGV network that connected them also with the rapidly transforming city of Lille. These policies had a very real effect in helping boosting growth in some of these previously peripheral cities.
See for an overview of Chen's argument.
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What this suggests is that here HSR may be useful in potentially boosting economic growth outside of London but it simply isn't enough on its own for wider regional regeneration. I've been saying for some time that if HS2 in particular stops at the buffers at Curzon Street in Birmingham then the wider West Midlands region won't get the economic benefits of the high speed rail network. Isolated towns and communities across the region need linking in to boost economic growth.
Locally, of course, the city region has got off to a good start in coming up with a wish list of HS2 related transport ideas, with a 'Local Connectivity Package' agreed recently by the city region's new Integrated Transport Authority (ITA) Shadow Board (which is made up of the leaders of seven local councils). As Cllr Roger Lawrence, spokesman for the ITA Shadow Board, has said "HS2 offers a once in a lifetime opportunity for our region and we intend to grab it with both hands."
This local package includes extensions to the Midland Metro tram system in Birmingham and the Black Country, new and upgraded rail stations, opening up rail freight lines to passenger services and the electrification of other key rail routes. So far, so good.
But beyond being a (very good) local wish list, there is little in the way of prioritisation, nor any real idea of where the money will actually come from. We've been here before with unfunded transport wish lists and haven't got very far.
And look at the Centro map of where jobs will be created by HS2 and few seem to get to get as far as Stafford. The key point is that HS2 needs integrating into the wider region and the transport network beyond Centro. That needs a vision and a plan for the wider region as a whole. That's now a lot more difficult since the abolition of Regional Development Agencies in England.
Of course, London got to keep its development agency and its assets, and what's on offer to London isn't available to English cities. In fact even after City Deals (like those for Coventry, Birmingham, and the Black Country), England will remain the most centralised state in Western Europe.
Indeed a recent event sponsored by the Futures Network West Midlands saw a discussion not so much over the merits or otherwise of HS2 but rather how it can be used to maximise regional growth, and regional governance was very much at the centre of the discussion.
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One small step forward on the governance front locally may come in the form of creating a combined authority as has already happened in Manchester. This is edging forward here in the West Midlands, but one local authority is still holding out against it. It's also true to say that much collaboration is already going on across LEPs and Centro.
But while this kind of voluntary regional collaboration has achieved much in the past, this depended heavily on a handful of motivated individuals and it's doubtful if this sort of approach is robust enough for the long-haul required if we are to make the most of High Speed Rail for the wider region.
Rather, a less London-centred approach to High Speed Rail requires the return of power to cities like Birmingham and Coventry, a fresh impetus towards regional governance, and a more equitable distribution of funding between London and the rest.
Remember that the London bias of central government means that far more funding per head is spent on things like transport or the arts in London than anywhere else in the 海角视频. This 'London first' approach has to change if regional regeneration is to have real meaning.
* Professor David Bailey works at the in Birmingham