Bus franchising is the most important current transport issue in Wales. Buses carry more individual passenger trips than trains. However, there are challenges facing the Bus Services (Wales) Bill which will implement Welsh Government’s integrated bus services policy throughout Wales.
On September 16th the Senedd, as part of its overall consideration of the bill will debate the general principles of bus franchising, which is likely to pass on political grounds (Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour both support the concept).
The Buses Act 1985 has been much derided by this column and elsewhere because the bus system it provided failed to produce an integrated bus network where tickets could be used on different operators’ buses and where timetables provided a through service with minimum waiting time. Successive Welsh Government transport ministers have promised a vastly improved bus operation.
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Bus services are currently provided by private companies and by municipally owned financially viable companies in Cardiff and Newport. Alongside these commercial services county-level councils may tender services to fill the gaps particularly in rural areas, during evenings and on Sundays.
The One Network One Timetable One Ticket white paper (2022) set out a franchised-based system for bus services in Wales, a major change from the current mix of deregulated and local transport authority funded bus operations. The principles and benefits of bus franchising have been discussed in this column on many occasions.
The financial resolution to provide the extra money to fund the promised scheme is more difficult as it will affect other budgets for example health or education as they all come from the single Welsh Government pot.
Transport for Wales’ (TfW) has presented the financial case in realistic terms of the ‘insufficient funding to enable change and meet expected service delivery … and a lack of resources and capability to deliver the programme’. Cutting those TfW costs not directly related to running trains or buses would contribute to the shortfall.
A seven-year franchise agreement may sound like a guaranteed financial position for operators. However that depends on accurately forecast inflation rates. As this is unlikely operators will require a review clause on funding but TfW has said there is no additional money.
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The Bill provides for central government to determine and fund local bus services including those socially necessary should it wish to. If this implies that local bus services could be run from Cardiff that is unwise and unworkable as this column has often indicated.
South west Wales is the first (by 2027) of four regions to receive the planned integrated system. Its public consultation document contradicts itself, stating that ‘all decisions about bus services in Wales (including routes, timetables, fares , hours of operation) will be made by Welsh Government and Transport for Wales’ One paragraph later the document includes ‘county councils and bus operators’ in these decisions. Welsh Government must make clear who decides.
Most public sector bus management capability and expertise in government lies at county council level rather than at TfW. That results from fifty years’ experience in managing school and tendered buses. Too much centralisation at TfW head office in Pontypridd, may lose public transport many of those staff skills.
The management of the new system has to be jointly between TfW and local authorities. Using the government’s regional offices , such as those in Carmarthen or Llandudno, could be an alternative, but why therefore not use the Corporate Joint Committees (CJCs the new regional bodies in Wales with statutory powers) model. This implies county-level involvement though there is a good argument for the CJCs to represent local areas as they can take a wider journey to work / school / leisure perspective.
Successive transport ministers want more services provided by SME bus operators rather large groups but the former may face unacceptable capital and maintenance facility risks. If this scheme became unprofitable, major bus groups are better positioned to relocate assets (e.g. vehicles and garage equipment).
The south west Wales base network transport model has Carmarthen as the principal hub despite most people living in south east Carmarthenshire; and implies a bus service to Llanelli rail station which in fact is only five trains each day. Fifty years transport experience tells me to set model outputs against reality.
Assuming the financial constraints can be resolved a new integrated bus network can be developed. However it must be the most appropriate network for travellers based on the consultation results.
Professor Stuart Cole CBE is Emeritus Professor of Transport (Economics and Policy) at the University of South Wales.