Chancellor Rachel Reeves will next week present the 海角视频 Government’s next three year spending commitments in the comprehensive spending review (CSR).
That should, if London is listening, see some major pledges for rail enhancement investment in Wales.
Instead of focusing on the case for rail devolution, the failings of the Barnett formula and decades of relative underspend on Wales’s rail network by various 海角视频 governments, I want to focus on looking ahead and arguing for £4bn rail investment to 2040.
As I set out in a letter to Secretary of State for Transport Heidi Alexander last December, this is based on rail enhancement commitments likely in England of approximately £80bn over the same period.
These commitments include to complete HS2, TransPennine upgrade, East West Rail, and some new schemes in England - some of which have been announced ahead of the CSR including more trams in Manchester, Leeds-Bradford tram, Liverpool, Bristol and the West of England.
Some £4bn for Wales would be a commensurate and a fair Barnett allocation and can be directed at schemes in Wales already subject to significant business case and scheme development.
To be clear, Wales needs this investment not just because its fair or right, but because of the benefits, especially economic, that can be realised.
These include mode shift and reduced carbon emissions, economic agglomeration and development benefits, more transit oriented development , reduced road traffic accidents, improved air quality, more financially efficient public transport operations, reduced road congestion (freeing up road space for those that need to use them) and less wear and tear of our roads.
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As I set out in my book in Wales via Transport for Wales, Welsh Government, the regions and local authorities, we have already developed a range of rail enhancement schemes to at least outline business case, commensurate with that scale of investment and which will deliver these wider benefits to 2040.
In summary they are:
South Wales Main Line (SWML) upgrade £1bn)
We need to see the five Burns stations (pretty much along the lines of the proposals in the 2013 Metro Impact Study and later presented in the Western Gateway 2050 Rail Vision).
This would see new stations at Cardiff East, Parkway, Newport West, Maindy, Llanwern and Magor and the complementary relief lines upgrade.
We also need:
- More electrification heading west to Swansea and Carmarthen.
- New services including Bristol Temple Meads to Cardiff, with some continuing west from Cardiff to Swansea and Carmarthen. I would also explore whether we could route one via the Vale of Glamorgan Line and Cardiff Airport.
- The new open access Lumo (part of FirstGroup) fast Carmarthen-Cardiff-London service which will skip Swansea High Street and Neath (but stopping at Gowerton) enabling Carmarthen to function as a Parkway for West Wales.
- I would also like to see the GWR services into South Wales mapped into the Transport for Wales franchise or GBR Cymru arrangements post the establishment of Great British Railways.
Swansea Bay and West Wales £500m
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There is very good initial phase of a Metro in Swansea/Neath/Llanelli which has been subject to significant scheme and business case development. The first key phases of this urban area rail Metro include two new key routes and services with:
- Bury Port to Swansea High Street with a new station at Cockett.
- Pontardulais-Llandarcy-Neath-Swansea service using the Swansea District Line (SDL) and a new chord connection to the South Wales Mainline at Britton Ferry to allow direct services to Swansea High Street from the SDL. This can support new local Metro stations at Morriston, Llandarcy, Pontlliw. Felindre, etc.
We also need enhanced local rail services west of Swansea all the way to Milford Haven aligned to a range of tactical infrastructure enhancement – these complement some of the South Wales Mainline service measures set out above
This work needs to be combined with a focus on more and greater transit-oriented development at primary stations like Llandarcy, Neath, Llanelli and in/around Swansea High Street stations.
North Wales £1bn
Transport Secretary Ken Skates set out a big vision for North Wales at a transport conference in Wrexham last month.
This vision needs to see some early measures and focused delivery with an initial £1bn programme that includes:
- Upgrade of borderlands and integration with Merseyrail and use of their new 777s electric stock; early measures to deliver capacity for freight at Padeswood.
- North Wales Main Line (NWML) line speed and capacity upgrades to allow more services – both local all stopper with increased frequency, and long-distance express.
- A rolling electrification programme.
- New stations and key station upgrade for example, Shotton (as an interchange), Deeside Industrial Estate and especially Chester to allow more capacity through the station.
- Longer term the application of tram-train in both north east and north west Wales.
Cardiff Capital Region Metro £500m
Now there are good cases to be made for at least a further £2bn of rail and metro investment in the Cardiff Capital Region. This includes the full Cardiff Crossrail, Aberdare-Hirwaun, Cross Valley, Caerphilly-Newport and an extension in Merthyr. However, the initial and pragmatic focus has to be:
- Deliver a Metro in Cardiff (which is not really delivered as part of the current South Wales Metro programme. This means Cardiff Crossrail phase two.
- At its core this needs to see the City and Coryton lines operate with at least 4 trains per hour (tph) instead of the 2tph planed, this needs work at Cardiff West junction, and a Coryton loop.
- Station Link at Central to connect Crossrail Phase 1a (to the Bay) to the west, electrification to Penarth and tram-trains on Penarth – Coryton via the Bay.
- Then further Metro stations, including Roath Park, Ely Mill, Gabalfa, Treforest Industrial Estate, Pontypridd North and a new platform at Cogan on a Penarth branch served by tram-trains.
- Some further double tracking to the Core Valley Lines to improve capacity and reliability.
- New Ebbw Valley line services planned (to get 4tph south of Llanhilleth) routing to the Marches line and Abergavenny with a new stop at Caerleon and perhaps Sebastopol (this a better investment than the short extension to Abertillery).
- Maesteg line measure to deliver at least 2tph.
- Then perhaps, the Coryton-Radyr link (in whatever form is appropriate) as this connection helps build our connected public transport grid. It will also make the new Velindre hospital more accessible from the north of Cardiff.
Marches Line £500m
This line supports what is perhaps Transport for Wales' most profitable service. It needs to be upgraded so we can offer a reliable sub three hour Cardiff-Manchester journey time. This will require:
- Some passing sections upgraded track and signalling and some electrification.
- In some places new local services in NE and SE Wales so that local stations (eg Pontypool, Caerleon (new), Ruabon, Chirk, etc can be taken off long distance services and served instead by new local Metro services. Further measures may be required at Crewe.
Finally
To conclude giving the tens of billions committed in England (which I welcome outside London) we need to see a forward commitment of at least £4bn to 2040 in Wales, anything less is just not acceptable, and would be politically toxic. And for my perspective we still need full rail devolution to Wales.
In addition to this core rail investment, we need to integrate these interventions with our new post bus reform redesigned bus networks (which will also need more investment.
The Welsh Government and the regional joint corporate committees also need to find the further infrastructure investment needed to deliver more bus priority and bus lanes, especially in our urban areas. This will improve both the attractiveness of bus services and the financial efficiency of bus operations.
- This is an abridged version of a from Prof Barry.