Coronavirus is going to cause a “lot of pain” for the aviation industry in the next couple of years but aerospace giants such as Airbus will continue to thrive in the long run, according to an expert in Bristol.
With cases of Covid-19 on the rise in the 海角视频, airlines grounding flights and Europe closing its borders, there are many questions being raised about the future of the industry.
Aviation conultancy Centre for Aviation (CAPA) is calling for coordinated government and sector-led action to help, while the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) is urging governments to implement “strong policies for a prompt recovery” after warning up to 50 million jobs in the travel and tourism sector could be at risk.
Although the pandemic will have serious implications for those working for airlines, the long-term outlook for the aviation sector is not as negative as might first appear, says UWE professor and former Airbus worker Dr Steve Wright.
Dr Wright says history has showed that world aviation is able to recover from crises.
“The ones I remember are the Gulf Crisis, 9/11 and the 2008 global recession,” he said. “There was a major trough in 2001 after 9/11.
“Every 10 or 12 years the world airline industry is hit by some major shock. There is going to be a lot of pain ahead probably for a couple of years at least.”
Dr Wright says those working in customer-facing roles for airlines will be hit hardest and weaker airlines are likely to go bankrupt.
'There will be a mass extinction of smaller airlines'
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“There will be immediate pain, particularly for those who operate the aircraft and a lot of people will lose their jobs,” he said.
“There will be a mass extinction of smaller airlines but the national carriers will be propped up by governments – and the survivors will do very nicely because they’ll pick up all the business from the bankrupt ones.”
However, Dr Wright points out that those working in industry for aerospace manufacturers such as Airbus, which employs thousands of people at its base in Filton and at its site in Broughton, North Wales, and Rolls-Royce, are “disconnected” from the immediate impacts.
“What people are mostly working on in the aerospace sector are things we won’t see for another five years,” he explained.
“These aerospace companies are in so deep they have to see through their developments.”
The concern for aerospace manufacturers, he says, will be around the impact coronavirus has on the workforce rather than the work they are doing.
“No interesting new aircraft is going to get cancelled because of coronavirus.
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“It will put a big dent in corporate share prices and the aerospace sector will lose people, but the good news is that these large industries provide an absorber for shocks that go through the world. The small businesses are the ones who will take the brunt.”
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According to Dr Wright, recovery usually takes about two years.
He added: “Markets drop quickly and recover slowly and as a species we are very risk averse so everybody is going to be quite edgy.
“It depends how long the pandemic lasts. “[But] the world aviation economy always catches back up.”