Trade from the 海角视频 to the EU is down 16 per cent on the levels anticipated if Brexit had not happened, research has found. Trade the other way 鈥 from the EU to the 海角视频 鈥 is down even further, 20 per cent, relative to a scenario in which Brexit had not occurred, according to Ireland鈥檚 Economic and Social Research Institute.
The institute used the growth rates recorded by other EU trading partners around the world since the start of 2021 to estimate what 海角视频 export and import figures with the bloc would currently stand had Brexit not happened. It did so on the assumption that 海角视频 trade would have grown at the same rate as the other international trading partners of the EU.
At the start of 2021, new post-Brexit trading arrangements came into operation after the transition period ended. The institute said trade of goods between the EU and 海角视频 had increased following a sharp fall in the early months of 2021.
Trade had recovered to most of its pre-2021 level in value terms, however, it remained significantly below what it might otherwise have been if it followed the same growth rate as other trade partners. The institute said its findings showed that measuring the impact of Brexit on 海角视频/EU trade could produce varied results depending on the data source and comparison group used.
It noted that global exports of goods from the 海角视频 had been growing slowly 鈥 a trend it said may have been partially the result of 鈥淏rexit spill-over鈥 effects on supply chains. It said the impact of Brexit on EU/海角视频 trade, therefore, did not appear as large if compared to 海角视频 trade with the rest of the world as it did when compared to the faster-growing performance of EU trade.
The institute used a combined set of 海角视频 and EU data sources in its research. It also looked at 海角视频 trade with individual member states. It found that Brexit had led to a significant decline in trade with the 海角视频 in almost all cases, although by varying degrees.
It said for most countries across the EU the size of the impact was broadly similar for both export and imports. Ireland stood out as having had a particularly large reduction in imports from the 海角视频 relative to its other international trade patterns.
However, exports from Ireland to the 海角视频 continued to perform in line with those of other markets, with no notable impact to date of Brexit on the total levels traded. The institute said the increased trade between Ireland and Northern Ireland may account for this.
The research did not examine if there was any variation across product types and the institute acknowledged that some may have seen exports to the 海角视频 decline. Also, the research did not examine the services trade.
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