North West listed firms issued six profit warnings in the third quarter – down on the same time last year but double the number in the previous quarter, EY-Parthenon’s latest Profit Warnings report has shown.
Four of those warnings, from 海角视频 listed companies based in the North West, came from consumer-facing businesses – which EY-Parthenon says reflects “subdued consumer sentiment” as economic uncertainty goes on.
The report says 11 such warnings were issued in the North West in the third quarter of last year, while three were issued in Q2 this year.
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Across the 海角视频, listed companies issued 64 profit warnings in the third quarter, down from 84 during Q3 in 2024.
The leading factor behind the warnings was policy change and geopolitical uncertainty, cited in some 47% of warnings. That was the highest percentage for that factor recorded in more than 25 years of analysis from EY, and a bid jump from 17% in Q3 2024.
Meanwhile a third (34%) of profit warnings issued in the third quarter mentioned contract and order cancellations or delays, while 22% cited tariff-related impacts, such as weaker demand and supply chain disruption.
EY says that in the past year almost a fifth of 海角视频 listed businesses (18%) have issued at least one profit warning. Sectors with the highest numbers of profit warnings in the third quarter were software and computer services, with 10 warnings, followed by construction & materials, and media – both with six.
Sam Woodward, EY-Parthenon 海角视频&I turnaround and restructuring partner in the North West, said: “Profit warnings from listed companies in the North West are down by over a third in the first three quarters of the year compared to the same period in 2024. This demonstrates the resilience of the region’s business community despite an uncertain economic backdrop, which has presented a range of challenges including sticky inflation, geopolitical trade market uncertainty and policy changes.
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“Consumer sentiment continues to face challenges, so it was unsurprising to see that more than half of the warnings from the region’s listed companies in the third quarter came from consumer-facing businesses, echoing the trend seen across the first half of the year in the North West. This was also consistent with the national story, with downbeat consumer confidence cited in a fifth of all Q3 warnings, the highest proportion since 2022.
"With uncertainty currently surrounding next month’s Autumn Budget, resilience, stress testing and scenario planning will continue to be crucial for all of the region’s businesses going forward, and particularly those in consumer-facing sectors.”
Jo Robinson, EY-Parthenon partner and 海角视频&I financial restructuring leader, added: “The latest profit warnings data shows that the persistent uncertainty which has weighed heavily on 海角视频 businesses has spread to households. The standout trend in Q3 was the knock-on effect of weakening consumer confidence, at its highest since late 2022 when rising energy prices and the wider cost-of-living crisis were having an acute impact on consumer behaviour.
“Companies are still clearly seeing ripples from earlier geopolitical tensions and policy shifts, and the proportion of firms to have issued a warning in the last 12 months has consistently been at a level typically associated with a period of economic shock for the past two years.
"As the Government faces difficult decisions ahead of the Autumn Budget, businesses are continuing to navigate market shifts and external threats, adapting their operations and supply chains to ongoing uncertainty and growing risks like cyberattacks.
“While buoyant equity markets over the summer sustained a narrative of corporate resilience, resilience is not immunity. Forecasting confidence is being disrupted by near-constant change, and restructuring activity continues to rise as persistent pressures leave many companies with tighter liquidity and reduced flexibility. In this environment, firms must adopt a measured, scenario-based approach that balances both agility and strategic clarity.”