The Scottish referendum debate has centred on whether Scotland is stronger in the union or outside it – little attention has been paid to which option benefits the England and the West Midlands.
The impact on the region of Scotland remaining in the 海角视频 could indeed be negative for the region.
The No side appears to have adopted a negative campaign, simply stating that Scotland would be £1,400 per head better off if it voted No.
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The Yes campaign, with its romantic populist approach, argue the independence windfall would be £1,000 per head.
Whatever happens, major changes can be anticipated.
The three main Westminster parties have already made un-costed commitments to further devolution if the vote is No, effectively moving toward further Scots financial autonomy in all areas, except defence, foreign affairs and social security.
Assessing the impact of either outcome is difficult, not least due to lack of hard data.
It is relatively easily to quantify relations between national economies as they have clearly defined economic spaces, trading and tax regimes.
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Defining relations between sub-national entities such as Scotland and England or the West Midlands is reliant on assumptions, which can be politically slanted because of data weaknesses.
Scotland and England have no single-defined border to determine the extent of the respective economies – according to some there are at least nine internationally acceptable variants of the North Sea border.
There is no agreement on the division of the continental shelf in the North Sea, currently the fisheries zones are used for determining allocation of North Sea energy resources. Statistically, these resources are allocated by the Office for National Statistics to the Continental Shelf.
Proponents of Scottish independence assume North Sea revenues should be allocated to Scotland.
With these revenues, Scotland per head provided an estimated £789 more in tax than the 海角视频 as a whole in 2012-13. Scottish public expenditure per head, however, in the same period was some £1,256 (11 per cent) higher.
If Scotland does vote Yes, the true fiscal position will become quickly apparent and negotiation commence on an equitable and transparent redistribution of national asset and liabilities, including natural energy resources, debt and currency reserves as well a range of cross-border issues that have yet to be identified or quantified. What could be the impact of the Scots remaining within the 海角视频?
The current structure of funding is via a combination of the Scottish block grant and 海角视频 departmental expenditure north of the border.
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Currently, public expenditure in Scotland is equivalent to 9.3 per cent of the 海角视频 total, despite an 8.4 per cent population share.
In 2012-13, per person this equated to £7,932, 16 per cent higher than the 海角视频 as a whole (£6,722).
Annual recurrent public spend per head was 12.5 per cent higher, and annual capital spend per head 48.2 per cent higher than for the 海角视频.
Significantly, enterprise expenditure per head in Scotland was three times higher and the differential with the West Midlands, which received £262 per head, was more pronounced with Scotland’s receipt of £1,001 per head.
Similarly, on transport activity, the West Midlands received £1,112
per head compared to Scotland’s £2,722.
There are arguments that Scotland receives more because of its greater relative deprivation and isolation, however there are parts of the West Midlands that suffer equally, if not more badly, in terms of poverty and structural employment, while in Herefordshire, Shropshire and Staffordshire there are communities that are as equally isolated as many Scottish populations.
It is also argued the Barnett Formula that determines the block grant is based on needs.
However, the baseline was calculated on the expenditure levels current when the political fudge was struck in 1979, with expenditure raised incrementally and proportionality since.
Expenditure was allocated according to 1979 population levels, although political expediencies subsequently has seen major funding variations.
For capital expenditure, the national basis of the calculation has the perverse impact that London capital expenditure (by far the main recipient) reduces the available capital for other English regions, while simultaneously increasing the allocation available for Scotland.
The key problems of the Barnett Formula is its lack of transparency in its calculation and focus on political expediency rather than addressing very real social problems which are usually concentrated in specific pockets within regions, rather than generically to regions as a whole.
If there is a long-term structural unemployment problem in Wolverhampton it should be treated as equally urgently and effectively as if it were in East Kilbride or Newport.
With Scotland being promised control of some income and other taxes, such as Air Passenger Duty (APD), unless the Barnett Formula is restructured, or indeed a new methodology altogether adopted, this will exacerbate the asymmetrical devolution of governance that currently exists and put devolved administrations at a fiscal advantage.
If, for instance, the West Midlands took control of APD, this could radically alter Birmingham Airport’s potential and consequently significantly boost the regional economy.
The Davies Commission has implicitly and more recently explicitly stated the strengths of the airport, but cited some reluctance on the part of international carriers to fly there, reducing or abolishing APD could transform its international attractiveness.
London, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland have institutions that take strategic economic views and lobby for their implementation.
English regions, however defined, have no comparable capacity with no consensus on how devolution, if at all, should proceed.
There are interesting proposals for combined local authorities and both the Heseltine and Adonis reviews have suggested ways forward.
Proposals to give city regions greater powers offers some scope, although again there needs to be mechanisms for them each to work together effectively.
While the One North proposal is an innovative approach that incorporates disparate city and local identities and harnesses them collectively to create new regional approach.
The West Midlands, and indeed the Midlands collectively, needs to decide how it can move forward and strengthen what is already one of the more dynamic and productive regions globally.