海角视频

For Richard Wyn Jones, the next 10 years will be defined by what he sees as the existential crisis in which the 海角视频 is plunged.

He began by saying: 鈥淎nybody who鈥檚 taken an interest in Welsh politics over the last few decades has learnt to be very cautious.

鈥淲ho would have said in 1979 that we would eventually get devolution in 1997? Who would have said, given the narrowness of the margin in the 鈥�97 referendum, that we鈥檇 end up in a situation where the overwhelming majority of the people in Wales consistently support devolution, want more of it etc?

鈥淥ne of the things we鈥檝e learnt is that things can change very quickly.鈥�

Having got that out of the way, he said: 鈥淭he 海角视频 is in a state crisis, and there are all kinds of obvious manifestations of this. But the territorial constitution is always a great part of the crisis.

鈥淪ince 2014 we are in a position where we know that around half of the people in Scotland want to leave the Union.

鈥淪ince 2016 we鈥檝e had Brexit, which has brought about one of the most significant changes in the geopolitical and economic orientation of the state since the 1940s.

鈥淚t was a very narrow referendum margin 鈥� decisive but still narrow. Since then nothing has been done to build losers鈥� consent.

鈥淚t鈥檚 been operationalised in a way that has alienated all our closest neighbours. It鈥檚 alienated the United States. It鈥檚 created an economic border within the 海角视频 between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

鈥淵ou鈥檝e got the Conservative Party, which is the party of government in England, that has basically purged non-believers from the ranks.

鈥淵ou鈥檝e got a Labour Party which has gone through a huge period of turmoil and is an extremely unhappy place internally.

鈥淵ou鈥檝e got the monarchy, which is another pillar of the state, with a monarch who is clearly old and infirm. You鈥檝e got one of her sons involved in a global sex scandal.

鈥淭he armed forces have lost the two major conflicts they鈥檝e been involved in most recently.

鈥淭he state is in deep crisis. This has huge implications for the territorial constitution.

鈥淪cotland and Scottish independence is clearly unsettled. Northern Ireland is an open wound.

鈥淓ngland is governed by a party that is deeply unrepresentative of opinion in England actually in important ways 鈥� but absolutely in Wales.

鈥淚 haven鈥檛 started to talk about the economy, I haven鈥檛 even mentioned the fact that above and beyond the Covid hits, dragging the 海角视频 out of the single market has massive implications for Wales in particular, more in Wales than in almost any other parts of the state.

鈥淔rom a Welsh perspective, we鈥檝e got this weird paradox.

鈥淲e鈥檒l be marking 100 years of Labour domination of Wales in November of this year.

鈥淒evolution is probably more popular than it鈥檚 ever been. We have a Welsh Government which is trusted more than anything that has preceded it, whatever the noises off 鈥� that鈥檚 what the data suggests.

鈥淭here鈥檚 clearly consensus amongst the Welsh electorate for more powers.

鈥淵ou鈥檝e got all of that, but at the same time you鈥檝e got a 海角视频 Government and a Conservative Party that is increasingly treating devolution as an existential threat to the state.鈥�

Prof Jones said the key concept for Brexiteers was parliamentary 鈥� meaning Westminster 鈥� sovereignty.

鈥淢ost people in England in particular who are most pro-Brexit are also very suspicious of devolution,鈥� he said.

鈥淭hose things have always gone hand in hand in England. So for many of the people who support Brexit, devolution is the next tick on the agenda.

鈥淭here are no economic benefits to Brexit. The only thing they can claim is that they have reclaimed parliamentary sovereignty.

鈥淥bviously the European Union offended against that, but so does devolution. Devolution creates alternative centres of power and legitimacy within the state 鈥� and that鈥檚 an anathema to this ultra-centralising, parliamentary-sovereignty-based decision that Brexit has become.

鈥淪o devolution is an existential threat to that, coupled to the fact that the Conservatives can鈥檛 win in Wales or Scotland.

鈥淭his is not an administration in London that respects other people鈥檚 mandates. It doesn鈥檛 accept the basis of the polity, basically.

鈥淎nd they鈥檙e getting increasingly extreme in this.

鈥淭he problem they have is that there鈥檚 no democratic road to unwinding devolution.

鈥淭his is the key fact which they are choosing to ignore at the moment.

鈥淭hey seem to believe that if they force people to choose between the central state and devolved Wales, because Wales voted for Brexit ultimately it chooses the central state.

鈥淭hat ignores two things, one of which is that the Brexit vote in Wales was more contradictory than both Europhiles and Europhobes understand.

鈥淭here is a group of people in Wales who are pro-devolution and pro-Brexit.

鈥淭hat makes no sense to my nationalist friends, be they large 鈥榥鈥� or small 鈥榥鈥� nationalists, because for them home rule and Europe are entirely compatible.

鈥淎nd it makes no sense at all to Europhobes because they think that if you love Brexit you must hate devolution.

鈥淭here is a group of people in Wales who feel strongly Welsh and strongly British. The strongly Welsh bit of them tends to like devolution; the strongly British bit of them tends to be Eurosceptic.

鈥淪o they鈥檙e pro-devolution Eurosceptics. People find this mind-boggling, but it鈥檚 the case nonetheless.

鈥淎lso, what鈥檚 happening is if you force people to choose between the 海角视频 鈥� Global Britain 鈥� or devolved Wales, actually what鈥檚 happening is a good chunk of people are moving in the direction of independence.

鈥淭hey were comfortable with the notion of the 海角视频 evolving in a kind of quasi-federalist direction, they were comfortable with multiple identities, including European. But if that鈥檚 no longer an option, the assumption that they鈥檇 choose Britain is completely mistaken.鈥�

Asked what he saw as the most likely constitutional scenario we will be looking at in 10 years鈥� time, Prof Jones said: 鈥淔or me, the answer to that question has to revolve around the Labour Party.

鈥淟abour is in a position where it completely dominates Welsh politics in a way that no other political party in the democratic world dominates the politics of a particular nation.

鈥淭hey are now in a position where they鈥檝e hit the sweet spot of the Welsh electorate, but it looks to me as if the 海角视频 Government 鈥� because of its centralising mania with parliamentary sovereignty 鈥� is intent on undermining their position.

鈥淲hat are Welsh Labour going to do if the 海角视频 Government is determined to undermine devolution, which I think increasingly obviously it is? They will hope they can just kick the can down the road and the white knight, Sir Keir Starmer, will ride in, form a 海角视频 government and somehow they won鈥檛 need to worry about these things.

鈥淚鈥檓 not so sure. The Conservatives are clearly in deep trouble at the moment, but it is mid-term and Labour鈥檚 route to a majority is extremely difficult still.

鈥淭he Conservatives have always got the 2015 general election anti-SNP play 鈥� Labour government dependent on the SNP, rally round the flag 鈥� which won them the 2015 general election. The danger for Welsh Labour is that actually they鈥檙e going to have to make a choice 鈥� and I think ultimately that they鈥檙e going to have to choose Wales. What that looks like and how painful it is for them internally, I don鈥檛 know.

鈥淪ince the disaster in 1999 [when Plaid won safe Labour seats in the first National Assembly election], Labour have learnt not to leave the flank open to Plaid Cymru, and they鈥檝e been incredibly successful because they learnt that lesson. And I think they remember that lesson.鈥�

Asked whether British Labour鈥檚 Union flag-waving image aimed at winning back former 鈥渞ed wall鈥� voters would alienate supporters in Wales, Prof Jones said: 鈥淪tarmer gets hammered by certain bits of social media for doing what he鈥檚 doing, but if you look at the electoral battleground he鈥檚 got to try and win back those voters.

鈥淲hat is the characteristic of those voters? Red wall is a euphemism for English-identifying. This is the key thing that is obvious if you鈥檙e Welsh, but metropolitan commentators in London really struggle to understand.

鈥淥ne completely understands that focus. Scotland is hopeless from Labour鈥檚 perspective, Wales is in the bag 鈥� so England is obviously where he鈥檚 going to focus his attention.

鈥淚t鈥檚 only harmful for Labour in Wales if they don鈥檛 continue to differentiate the Welsh Labour brand.

鈥淚f they continue to differentiate the Welsh Labour brand, in word and in deed, which is what they鈥檙e doing, it鈥檚 not a huge problem.

鈥淚t will annoy Welsh Labour activists, but they鈥檒l go, 鈥榃e鈥檝e still got Welsh Labour鈥�. But one of the things that鈥檚 going to happen not in 10 years鈥� time, but maybe two or three years鈥� time is, who is going to succeed Mark Drakeford?

鈥淐rucially for me, what is the basis of the choice? On what grounds are Welsh Labour members going to make that decision? The reason I ask in that sense is that Labour is utterly dominated by the left-right split within the party, as far as I can see.

鈥淚f that鈥檚 the basis of who people vote for in choosing a successor to Drakeford, who can play the soft nationalist card most successfully 鈥� who鈥檚 more plausible in doing the standing up for Wales?

鈥淭hey could mistakenly cede that ground, which is the one they need to occupy. If they鈥檙e choosing on left-right grounds, they might end up with a really weird choice, given what鈥檚 going on and who鈥檚 leaving the party.

鈥淢ark Drakeford is associated with both the Welsh agenda and the left.鈥�

Asked whether Plaid Cymru鈥檚 poor performance in the 2021 Senedd election had derailed its hope to win an independence referendum by 2030, Prof Jones said: 鈥淧laid Cymru had a very disappointing election and they鈥檝e got issues, so to speak.

鈥淏ut it鈥檚 always been my contention that the fundamental problem Plaid Cymru have is that Welsh Labour has been very clever at the devolved politics game, and in a sense they鈥檙e always waiting for Labour to make a mistake.

鈥淭hey need Labour to make a mistake to open up some ground for them 鈥� and until that day, they鈥檙e always treading water.

鈥淏ut if we do end up with a Scottish independence referendum, if we do end up moving towards a border poll in Northern Ireland... If we assume that Scotland becomes independent, that Ireland is reunified and Wales is left with basically an 鈥楨ngland and Wales鈥� option 鈥� KEW, Kingdom of England and Wales 鈥� what I find fascinating about that in multiple conversations, I don鈥檛 have solid survey evidence for this, so it鈥檚 anecdotal, but I鈥檓 very struck by the fact that so many people who consider themselves to be unionists find the notion of Kingdom of England and Wales anathema.

鈥淎 union without Scotland in particular 鈥� nobody seems to care very much about Northern Ireland 鈥� is not a union that a lot of unionists in Wales want to be a part of.

鈥淭here鈥檚 something about that which psychologically I don鈥檛 understand fully. England is 85% of the current state, Scotland is 7%, we鈥檙e 5%, Northern Ireland is 3%. You don鈥檛 care about the 3%. Why is it that the presence of the 7% seems to be psychologically so important?

鈥淎nyway, it is, and I鈥檝e been involved in all kinds of conversations with unionists who say that鈥檚 the point where the Union is over for them.

鈥淚 find that interesting because it obviously means that their commitment to the Union is conditional rather than absolute. And that is a very widespread feeling.

鈥淥n the other hand, if you look at the demographics of Wales, one in five of the electorate identify as English.

鈥淪o this is potentially hugely difficult and hugely complicated.

鈥淏ut if we do end up in a situation where Scotland has gone or is going, then everything changes in Wales at that point.鈥�