Wales has seen a big spike in unemployment while continuing to have the lowest employment rate and the second worst economic activity level in the 海角视频. According to the ONS, which said its new Labour Force Survey method still needs to be treated with cautious, unemployment in Wales from June to August rose 1.3% on the previous quarter to 4.8%.
The number of working aged adults unemployed climbed by 21,000 to 72,000. For the 海角视频 as a whole the unemployment rate was down 141,000 (0.4%) to 1.38 million. For England the unemployment rate was 4%, Scotland 3.9% and Northern Ireland 1.9%. Only the north east of England (5.6%) and London (5.5%) was the rate higher than Wales.
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Although improved by 1.1%, Wales remains at the bottom of the 海角视频 employment rate for working aged adults at just 69.8%. For the 海角视频 as a whole the employment rate was 75%. For England it was 75.6%, Scotland 73.7% and Northern Ireland 70.2%.
While the economically inactive rate was down in Wales by 43,000 on the quarter to 796,000, it remains the second highest rate of any 海角视频 nation or region at 26.5%, compared to a 海角视频 average of 21.8%. For England it was 21.2%, Scotland 23.2%. Northern Ireland has the highest economic inactivity rate at 28.5%.
ONS figures also show that wage growth has slowed to its lowest level for over two years, boosting hopes that interest rates will be cut again next month.
The average regular earnings growth eased back to 4.9% in the three months to July, down from 5.1% in the previous three months.
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This marked the lowest level since the three months to June 2022. Experts said the slowdown in wage growth reinforces expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates again when it next decides in November, with most pencilling in a reduction to 4.75% from 5% currently.
Pay growth has fallen sharply after hitting a record high of nearly 8% in summer 2023, although it continues to outstrip inflation, rising by 2.6% in the three months to August with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) taken into account.
Rob Wood, chief 海角视频 economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said “slowing wages make a November rate cut a slam dunk”.
“A 25 basis point November Bank Rate cut is a racing certainty based on pay growth weakening, but we think the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will cut rates only once a quarter after that as the labour market remains tight, even if it is easing,” he said.
The fall in wage growth came alongside figures also signalling further weakness in the jobs market, which is seen helping convince the Bank that inflation pressures are easing in the 海角视频.
The ONS data showed vacancies dropping by 34,000 to 841,000 in the quarter to September, which is the lowest level since March to May 2021, while workers on 海角视频 payrolls also fell by 15,000 in September to 30.3 million after a revised 35,000 drop in August.