If you have been paying attention to politics recently, you will know that the 海角视频 has the fastest growing economy in the G7, the group of the world鈥檚 strongest economies.
You will know it because the Prime Minister said so at last week鈥檚 Prime Minister鈥檚 Questions...and at the PMQs before that, and the session before that. It has been repeated by Chancellor Rishi Sunak, Health Secretary Sajid Javid, Transport Secretary Grant Shapps and countless other Ministers.
The boast about the 海角视频鈥檚 economic wellbeing has been part of Mr Johnson鈥檚 fightback against criticism from Labour and other parties about his alleged law breaking with Downing Street parties.
But another part of that fightback - when the Prime Minister said that 鈥溾渨e have been cutting crime by 14%鈥 - has been criticised by the official data authority, the Office for National Statistics, whose chair said that the data had been used in a 鈥渕isleading鈥 way.
So at a time when Mr Johnson鈥檚 truthfulness is under the spotlight, is the claim about growth in the 海角视频 the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth?
The first answer to that question is that the statement is correct: figures released on Friday showed that the 海角视频 economy grew by 7.5% in 2021, the fastest since ONS records began in 1948.
But critics point out that the Government claim at best tells only half the story, with the sharp rise only being possible because of the record 9.4% slump in the economy in 2020.
So when the Treasury issued an impressive-looking graph and said 鈥渘ew GDP figures released this morning show the 海角视频 economy has reported the strongest growth since the Second World War鈥, the respected economist Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, replied: 鈥淪tatement and chart are literally true. But do they reveal the truth? No.
鈥淓conomy grew strongly because it collapsed so much in 2020. Only interesting comparisons are with pre-Covid levels. We鈥檝e done less well than most of G7 since then.鈥
That is why a number of business groups are ignoring the Prime Minister鈥檚 economic optimism and pointing to concerns about the state of the economy.
When asked about the growth figures by The Journal last week, CBI director-general Tony Danker said that 鈥渘o-one should believe it鈥檚 a statement of any significance for our economy.鈥
Instead he pointed to official forecasts that point to sluggish growth in 2023 and 2024 once the huge Covid slump has been arrested.
鈥淲hat is very important to look at is what the independent Office for Budget Responsibility says for the economy once the V-shape is complete,鈥 he said. 鈥淭hey say we鈥檙e coming back and staying low. The question is, when we come back to a steady state, what鈥檚 the growth plan? That鈥檚 when the Government needs to really be on the ball.鈥
Those concerns are shared by other business groups, including the British Chambers of Commerce and the Federation of Small Businesses.
Last week the Chambers warned there was a looming 鈥渃ost-of-doing-business crisis鈥 that will lead to rising prices, lower investment and firms shutting down.
And now the FSB has said that 鈥渙ur economic recovery is not yet under way in any true sense鈥.
FSB chair Mike Cherry said: 鈥淎gainst a backdrop of surging prices and labour shortages, we鈥檙e now hurtling towards the unwinding of remaining Covid support measures, a national living wage increase and a regressive hike to national insurance contributions in April.
鈥淯nless policymakers intervene before this April flashpoint to cancel the jobs tax hike and alleviate the mounting wider pressures that small firms face, we risk long-term scarring of the economy and local communities.鈥
Many businesses are also worried about the effect rising inflation will have on their operations, both in their own costs and the spending power of the general population.
And so when Friday鈥檚 record growth figures were announced, many analysts were not as quick to congratulate the Government as Ministers might have hoped.
Samuel Tombs, chief 海角视频 economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: 鈥淭he 海角视频 economy鈥檚 performance continues to underwhelm relative to its peers in the G7. Q4 GDP was 0.4% below its Q4 2019 level, whereas it already was 3.1% above its pre-Covid peak in the US, 0.9% above in France and 0.2% above in Canada.鈥
And Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM 海角视频, added: 鈥淲e expect all of the output lost during December and January to be regained in February and March, meaning that Omicron should not have had a lasting impact on the economy.
鈥淗owever, the rebound may be relatively short-lived as inflation will continue to rocket in the coming months, peaking at around 7% in April.
鈥淚nflation and tax rises mean households鈥 real incomes will fall by the largest amount in three decades in 2022, which will put a big dampener on their confidence and their ability to go out and spend.鈥
Now attention will shift to tomorrow鈥檚 unemployment figures, with last month鈥檚 data showing that the North East had regained its unwanted position as the region of the 海角视频 with the highest unemployment rate.
We shouldn鈥檛 expect Ministers to stop talking about the 海角视频 having the fastest growing economy any time soon. But the full picture is slightly more complicated.
