The 海角视频 and Welsh governments will announce an agreed position next week setting out a direction of travel in seeking to address decades of under investment in rail enhancement projects in Wales.
While it will not set out a financial funding commitment, or which projects could be backed, it will be the first time that the 海角视频 Government will recognise that Wales, despite having around 10% of the rail network in England and Wales, has over the last few decades received less than 2% of rail enhancement investment.
Up until 2040 the Department for Transport has committed around £80bn for rail enhancement projects England, including high speed two from London Birmingham, a high speed station at Euston, and the upgrade of the TransPennine route.
Once projects are started, they invariably get completed and so are funded across multiple spending review periods. There is currently only a commitment for several hundred millions pounds of new rail projects in Wales, which is different from funding needed to maintain, repair and overall existing rail infrastructure.
This includes a £50m commitment from the 海角视频 Government towards the upgrade of Cardiff Central Train Station, £20m towards the Welsh Government's Global Centre for Rail Excellence project, and the £125m it provided towards the near completed £1.1bn cost of electrifying the Core Valley Lines.
However, the agreed direction of travel is a positive move and builds on discussions held last month between Welsh Government Transport Secretary Ken Skates, the 海角视频 Government's Secretary of State for Transport, Heidi Alexander and Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens.
The case for rail investment in Wales - a non devolved matter - will though will be vying for the ear of the Treasury against other well worked up bids for capital spending, ahead of the multi-year spending review which is expected to be published next spring.
A 海角视频 Government source close to the joint government discussions on addressing rail under investment in Wales said: "The 海角视频 and Welsh governments will signal a direction of travel on rail in Wales in the coming days and the issue will be a priority in the spending review in spring. We're conscious of the historic under investment in Wales, exacerbated by HS2."
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There is currently no plans to reclassify HS2 as an England only rail project, something called for by Welsh Government and cross-party MPs and MSs.
Through the Barnett Formula, the Welsh Government used to receive a transfer from changes to the budget of the Department of Transport (DfT) based on a comparability factor of around 90% - set against a 5% 海角视频 population share calculation. The transfer was based on any change to the DfT budget.
The comparability factor was high because non-devolved items were a very small part of its budget, and Network Rail spending was not included.
However, with HS2 and Network Rail spending now part of the calculation, and a much larger proportion of the DfT's budget, the comparability factor for Wales has fallen to around 33%.
That squeeze doesn't impact Scotland, where all rail infrastructure spending is devolved. The decision of the Welsh Government in 2005 not to take up the offer of the devolution of rail powers, which Scotland grabbed, would have ensured full consequentials for all rail enhancement projects in England.
Whatever the agreed funding pot for Wales the cross-border Wales Rail Group will play a role in identifying funding projects.
TfW, which is overseeing the South Wales Metro electrification project, has already developed strong business cases for rail investment in Wales, including new Metro networks in Swansea Bay and North Wales and next phases of Cardiff Crossrail working with Cardiff Council. There are also strong cases for five new publicly funded train stations - recommended via the Burns Commission and taken forward by TfW and the Burns Delivery Unit, chaired by Simon Gibson - from Cardiff to Monmouthshire.
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The Burns Commission was set up by the Welsh Government to look at boosting public transport investment in south-east Wales after former First Minister Mark Drakeford took the decision in 2017 not to proceed with a Labour Senedd manifesto pledge to deliver an M4 relief road.
The proposed stations have a combined construction cost of £320m, but first require £15m for detailed design work and £50m upgrading the relief lines from Bristol Temple Meads Station to South Wales to allow them to be utilised by passenger trains.
From a viable train service passenger revenue perspective it would require the five stations to be delivered. To support integrated public transport, the Welsh Government, would also need to make a £400m investment, including improving road infrastructure in Newport and a dedicated bus lane between Newport and Cardiff along the A48 to the M4.
The Burns stations could become six if the Welsh Government grants planning for the proposed Cardiff Parkway scheme. Although the cost of the station element, which would be integrated into a dedicated business park, will have to reappraised.
There is also a case for electrification of the South Wales Mainline reaching Swansea and phases of proposed Swansea Bay City Metro, improvements to the Marches Line and electrification of the North Wales Mainline.
Another project could be a Cardiff Central link connecting Crossrail phase one to the City Line in the west. This would allow direct services to Cardiff Bay from the Valleys - without requiring a change at Cardiff Central. That would significantly enhance the new tram route to the Bay, while also alleviating pressure on Queen Street services from increased valley services generated by the Metro.
A separate new west Cardiff junction is also required to increase the number of services able to run on the City and Coryton Lines in the capital and which have the heaviest population densities on the Metro network,
At present the Metro project, while signalling a major upgrade in frequency and number of services from the Valleys into Cardiff, will see services on the City and Coryton Lines remaining at just two an hour.
There are around £4bn of well worked up rail enhancements schemes Wales, which the 海角视频 Government should commit to funding, even if it requires a small contribution from the Welsh Government, up to 2040.