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Economic Development

OBR should focus more on policy growth ‘upsides’ – says Tony Blair think tank

The OBR is widely expected to downgrade its economic and productivity forecasts ahead of the Budget,

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

The º£½ÇÊÓÆµ Government must force the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to take more account of policy "upsides" when assessing an impact on growth, Tony Blair's think tank has said.

The Treasury watchdog should be required to be bolder in predicting growth to reward more ambitious economic policies, a report by the Tony Blair Institute (TBI) suggested.

The OBR is widely expected to downgrade its economic and productivity forecasts ahead of the Budget, which will likely leave Reeves with a fiscal black hole of more than £20bn.

The report said the Westminster government should force the OBR to produce two forecasts rather than one, which would see it publish its existing independent baseline and a second more optimistic prediction on growth dubbed the "Upside Policies Scenario".

This framework would allow the OBR to reward risky policies and enable politicians to make a better pro-growth case to the public.

This new system would also encourage politicians and the public to view budgets as opportunities to generate growth rather than tax-and-spend fiscal exercises, the think tank said.

The report called on the Treasury to be bolder in incentivising economic growth by introducing a raft of pro-business policies.

Tom Smith, director of economic policy at the TBI, said: "Only a bold, pro-enterprise plan can lift living standards, strengthen the public finances and give the government the fiscal room for the changes voters want. Progressive policy tomorrow demands a pro-business growth plan today."