Manchester is set to outpace 海角视频 economic growth over the next three years, new research from EY shows – but other parts of the North West could face slower growth unless more is done to help them with their “untapped potential”.
EY’s latest Regional Economic Forecast predicts Manchester will see average annual Gross Value Added (GVA) growth of 2.1% from 2025 to 2028, outpacing the national rate of 1.6%. Only Reading is expected to see faster growth.
Meanwhile Manchester is predicted to see the joint-fastest rate of employment growth of 海角视频 towns and cities over the three years, with job numbers set to grow at an average annual rate of 1.3% – above the 海角视频 average of 0.7%.
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That would mean Manchester’s economy, as measured by GVA, would be more than £2.9bn larger in 2028 than it is today, with the tech and professional services sectors leading the charge. Greater Manchester as a whole is forecast to achieve GVA growth averaging 1.7% over the three years.
EY says Liverpool is expected to see the 海角视频’s joint-eighth-fastest economic growth between 2025 and 2028, with an annual average of 1.5% in line with regional trends. In employment terms, the city is set to see an employment growth rate of 0.7%, equal to the national rate and above the North West average. The Liverpool Combined Authority area is expected to see average annual GVA growth of 1.3%.
The North West’s annual GVA growth is predicted to reach 1.5% from 2025 to 2028, slightly slower than the national rate. Average annual employment growth is predicted to be 0.6%, again below the national rate.
EY says “information and communication”, which includes tech, is expected to be the North West’s fastest-growing sector over the three years, with annual average GVA growth of 2.4%.
Manufacturing, property, and retail are “expected to remain the leading contributors to GVA in the North West between now and 2028”.
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The professional services group also says the professional, scientific and technical sector will see the fastest employment growth. But it warns that manufacturing will see employment fall as high energy and labour costs take their toll.
Hilary Heap, EY’s North Market Leader, said: “The North West is home to a vibrant and diverse range of businesses, which are forecast to support growth for the region over the coming years, as knowledge-based sectors play a crucial role in fuelling economic momentum around the 海角视频. Thanks to its prowess as a hub for tech and professional services, Manchester is particularly well-positioned to capitalise on this, with the city projected to be one of the 海角视频’s leading centres for growth over the next three years. Manchester’s continued success reflects its strategic focus on building skills and capabilities in high-value sectors, and creating an attractive destination for investment.
“While the broader North West region is anticipated to see steady growth, it may lag slightly behind the national average in the coming years. This narrative is one of untapped potential, so ensuring that the right talent and investment can access more of the region’s towns and cities beyond Manchester through improved connectivity and skills development will be essential for accelerating their growth.
“It is important to consider how to leverage the North West's traditional manufacturing strengths. Although the manufacturing sector may face a decline in overall job numbers, it will continue to be a vital economic contributor to the region. As the shift towards advanced manufacturing progresses, collaboration between the public and private sectors will be crucial in enabling the North West to capitalise on its rich manufacturing heritage while also embracing the opportunities presented by new and emerging industries.”
Elsewhere in the North West
Chorley
Forecasted average annual GVA growth rate: 1.7%
Forecasted annual average employment growth rate: 0.7%
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Warrington
Forecasted average annual GVA growth rate: 1.6%
Forecasted annual average employment growth rate: 0.7%
Lancaster
Forecasted average annual GVA growth rate: 1.5%
Forecasted annual average employment growth rate: 0.6%
Rochdale
Forecasted average annual GVA growth rate: 1.5%
Forecasted annual average employment growth rate: 0.6%
Blackpool
Forecasted average annual GVA growth rate: 1.3%
Forecasted annual average employment growth rate: 0.5%
Preston
Forecasted average annual GVA growth rate: 1.3%
Forecasted annual average employment growth rate: 0.4%
Blackburn
Forecasted average annual GVA growth rate: 1.3%
Forecasted annual average employment growth rate: 0.3%
Wigan
Forecasted average annual GVA growth rate: 1.2%
Forecasted annual average employment growth rate: 0.5%
Cumberland
Forecasted average annual GVA growth rate: 1.2%
Forecasted annual average employment growth rate: 0.1%
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