Growth in the region has eased to its softest rate since the first lockdown ended, with experts anticipating a return to contraction as the second strict measure gets underway.
The NatWest Yorkshire & Humber Business Activity Index, a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s manufacturing and service sectors – registered 53.9 in October, down from 59.2 in September.
It is the lowest in the current four month run of expansion, yet stronger than the 海角视频 average as the third fastest region.
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And while there are fears it will be in negative territory this time next month, business sentiment hit a 30 month high - making the region the most optimistic in the country.
Richard Topliss, chair of the NatWest North Regional Board, said: “Although both output and new orders across the Yorkshire & Humber private sector continued to rise, the rates of growth eased considerably from September. Moreover, with the introduction of a new England-wide lockdown starting in November, we are likely to see a return to contraction territory in the short-term.
“Looking further ahead, firms are optimistic that activity will rise over the coming year, hoping that the 海角视频 can finally overcome the Covid-19 crisis and all businesses can remain open for good. In fact, positivity reached the strongest level for two-and-a-half years, signalling that firms still feel resilient enough to endure this difficult period and come out the other side.”
October data indicated a fifth successive monthly increase in new orders. At the sub-sector level, the slowdown was driven by a renewed decline at service providers, which more than offset faster growth at manufacturing firms.
As was the case in each of the previous seven months, private sector firms cut their staff numbers markedly during October. However the contraction eased to the softest in the current sequence. Underlying data revealed slower reductions at both manufacturers and service providers. Overall the pace of job shedding was slower than the 海角视频 average.
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Following the first increase for two years during September, outstanding business in Yorkshire & Humber rose again in October. The rate of expansion accelerated to the quickest since January 2018, and was the strongest across the 12 monitored 海角视频 regions.
Cost burdens faced by Yorkshire & Humber businesses continued to rise markedly at the start of the fourth quarter. Panellists noted higher raw material costs. The rate of inflation was quicker than the average for the 海角视频 as a whole.
Amid a further rise in input prices, firms opted to pass on some of the additional costs to their clients. Average output charges increased for the third month running, with the rate of inflation accelerating to the quickest since February.