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Economic Development

Inflation rises more than expected in July driven largely by air fares

The Bank of England is forecasting that inflation will increase further this year

A British Airways plane taking off from Heathrow(Image: PA Archive/PA Images)

Prices in the º£½ÇÊÓÆµ are set to have risen faster last month as school holidays boosted travel costs and grocery bills remain elevated, economists said.

Some experts said an “Oasis bump” could have contributed to higher accommodation prices in July.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the latest inflation dataset on Wednesday.

The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation is widely expected to have increased to 3.7% in July, from the 3.6% recorded in June.

The school summer holidays are likely to have seen airfares rise considerably, with airlines typically bumping up prices in July amid stronger demand from families.

Analysts for Pantheon Macroeconomics forecast that airfares could surge by 17.1% between June and July. Rail costs and package holidays are also set to have jumped amid the spike in summer travel.

July’s Retail Prices Index (RPI) measure of inflation will also be announced on Wednesday.

The Government has not confirmed how it will determine the cap on regulated train fare rises in England in 2026, but this year’s 4.6% hike was one percentage point above RPI in July 2024.