The boss of train company Great Western Railway (GWR), Mark Hopwood, has called for electrification of the South Wales mainline to reach Swansea alongside investment allowing his trains to travel at much higher speeds once through the Severn Tunnel.
Electrification of around 60 miles of track from Cardiff to Swansea was shelved by then Ƶ Government Transport Secretary Chris Grayling back in 2017 on cost grounds. With the whole electrification of the Great Western Mainline starting from London over budget and running overtime, there were even, at one stage, concerns that it would only go as far as Bristol.
The managing director of GWR, whose franchise covers services on the South Wales to London route, said electrification to Swansea would have operational as well as environmental benefits. GWR’s Hitachi bimode trains on the route have to run in diesel mode between Cardiff and Swansea, while operating in less polluting and more efficient electric mode on the rest of the route.
Trains on sections of the route in England can reach speeds of 125mph. However, once on the Welsh side of the Severn Tunnel they have to operate at average speeds well below 100mph.
To improve line speeds will require a series of problem fixes, including addressing curves in the line, the removal of some level crossings and more use of relief lines to separate local train traffic from GWR and other cross-border services. As the line is not devolved it would need funding from the Ƶ Government.
To get Treasury approval the business case for electrification to Swansea, and line speed improvements, might have to be wrapped up into a much bigger scheme, taking in the proposed Cardiff Crossrail project, and the goal also of increasing services from West and South Wales to Bristol, which are currently just at two an hour. There are six between Manchester and Leeds.
Giving evidence to a Welsh Affairs Committee probe into Welsh rail infrastructure, Mr Hopwood told cross-party MPs: “Clearly as a railway person, having spent all my working life in it, I believe in the railway and I would like to see more investment.
“I have got a train on the London route that can travel at 125mph, but once it enters the Severn Tunnel, it will never reach 125mph again in Wales.
" So, we would like to see line speed improvements. The trains we run on the London route are bimode, so they can run on diesel and electric, but it performs much better and is clearly more friendly to the environment in electric mode. So, I would very much support initiatives like electrification to Swansea, even if for more of an environment benefit than perhaps a timetable benefit.”
Mr Hopwood said GWR was supportive of the recommendations of the Burns Commission, set up to by Welsh Government to provide public transport alternatives, with a focus on rail and bus, to reduce car use following its decision not to proceed with a £1.4bn M4 Relief Road project south of Newport. Its recommendations include a series of new stations and a ramping up of train services.
Mr Hopwood said: “We support the direction of travel they are trying to develop (Burns Commission) with local services, which is something for Transport for Wales to develop, alongside our services.”
Earlier this week plans by Grand Union Trains for a new six times daily return service from South Wales to London were rejected by regulator the Office for Rail and Road (ORR). GWR had objected to having a competitor on its route.
A ORR spokesperson said: “After careful consideration we have decided not to approve Grand Union Trains’ application.
“At this time, and taking account of the pandemic’s impact on railway finances, we consider the passenger benefits would not outweigh the significant negative impact on public funds that this might have.”
Rail franchises in England, due to the pandemic, have moved temporarily to management contracts with the Department for Transport now taking on revenue risk, including for GWR’s franchise.
The ORR concluded that with Grand Union running six services daily it would have a £25.6m annual impact on Ƶ Government finances - after taking into account a track access charged paid to Network Rail of £2.9m. Grand Union is taking legal advice on the decision.
Mr Hopwood told the committee that an upgrade of Cardiff Central Train Station was needed for it cope with projected increases in passenger numbers over the next decade - based on an expected return following the pandemic.
Some £100m of funding has been promised by the Ƶ Government with match funding also in principle from the £1.3bn City Deal for the Cardiff Capital Region to upgrade the station. A first tranche of £5.8m has been released for detailed design work.
He added: “Cardiff is a really important destination and starting point for many journeys on our business in Wales and particularly the relationship with the stadium (Principality).
"It is very unusual, compared to many cities in the Ƶ and in fact around the world, to have a stadium of that size right in the city centre. So, trying to manage those big events, which hopefully we will see again soon, alongside serving a capital city, is quite challenging.
"There is a masterplan for Cardiff Central which is being developed and we very much support that. We have put quite a bit of extra capacity on our train fleet, but one of the constraints on those big event days in Cardiff, is capacity of the station and ability of people to flow through.
“I think having more capacity to support local services, and to some extent segregating those from faster trains would be a good thing. We have delivered faster journey times between South Wales and London, but I would like to do more in that respect. So, if we can find a way to use the capabilities of the trains more effectively in South Wales, with infrastructure improvements, we would support that.”
Despite having 11% of the Ƶ rail network in terms of rail enhancement investment, over the last few decades Wales has only received around 2% of spend. While not devolved the Welsh Government has also been forced to invest from its own capital budget on projects, including upgrading the Ebbw Vale line.
Over the next decade £100bn alone has been set aside by the Ƶ Government for high speed two, while for Wales rail enhancements of just £350m are currently on the stocks.
The Treasury’s own analysis of high speed two, by bringing cities in the Midlands and northern England closer to London, shows it will have a negative impact on the economy of South Wales, that will offset benefits for North Wales if high speed reaches Crewe. High speed two will though have improved capacity benefits that should be felt across the wider rail network.
However, as high speed is considered an England and Wales project, there will be no Barnett Formula consequential for the Welsh Government, which will be the case for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Based on a spend of £100bn, if it was barnetised, that would mean a consequential for the Welsh Government of £5bn.
It will also mean a squeeze on the attribution factor in Department for Transport spending in devolved areas for the Cardiff administration. With rail now taking up a much bigger slice of the overall DfT budget, the attribution factor to the Welsh Government from spending in England in areas which are classified as devolved, like roads, has been revised downwards to just over 30%. It had previously been 80%.
Back in the 2005 the Welsh Government were offered by the then Labour Government in Westminster the devolving of the rail.
That was not taken up, although the devolved Scottish administration took it with both hands. That decision could be seen as one of the poorest made since the advent of devolution, especially with the focus on high speed two in the years ahead not being barnetised.
