Cardiff and Swansea have been identified as being in the top three cities in the 海角视频 for projected employment growth.
However, according to the latest 海角视频 Powerhouse report from law firm Irwin Mitchell and the Centre for Economic and Business Research (Cebr), in terms of year-on-year growth on the key economic measure of gross value added (GVA), their predicted performance in Q4 of 2021 puts them firmly in the bottom five of the 海角视频 city league table.
With the ending of the furlough scheme from September, only 36% of cities in the report are expected to increase employment levels. Based on a travel to work analysis in Q4 2021, Cardiff and Swansea are ranked second and third highest respectively behind Cambridge.
Cardiff is expected to have an employment level of 255,100 in Q4, up 2.5% on a year earlier, with Swansea at 116,300, up 2.2% a year earlier. Cambridge, at 153,100, is expected to see a rise of 2.9%. Outer London is ranked lowest with a contraction of 5.4% followed by London at minus 3.9% and Leicester minus 3.5%.
The two Welsh cities are predicted to buck the trend, thanks to well established employment in the public sector that will see essential jobs protected.
However, despite Cardiff being in the top 10 for economic growth in Q4 2020, both the capital and Swansea have fallen into the bottom five for 2021 in the analysis of 50 cities.
Swansea with a total GVA in the year to Q4 of £5.1bn is ranked second worst with an annualised growth of just 5.6%, with Cardiff’s £13.bn fourth lowest with year-on-year growth of 5.8%. Huddersfield is lowest at 5.4% growth and Solihull and Warrington highest at 7.7%.
The 海角视频 Powerhouse report makes several recommendations for businesses looking to successfully emerge from lockdown and the challenges posed by Brexit. These include the need for policies to encourage investment and improve skills and local government having bespoke plans in place to support job creation heading out of the Covid-19 crisis, when the furlough scheme ends.
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It also calls on the 海角视频 Government also needs to prioritise the implementation of the 海角视频-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with as little disruption as possible to businesses and negotiate where possible to reach a smoother trading relationship with the EU post Brexit.
The report suggests that Welsh cities will need such support, to re-establish positive economic growth, despite the benefits of a stable employment. At the start of Covid-19, Wales was losing £79m a day due to the lockdown, a GVA loss of 37%, and the road to recovery will take time.
Vicky Brackett, head of business legal services at Irwin Mitchell said: “Wales has a large manufacturing base and this, coupled with a strong public sector is going to protect employment but any economic growth to come is predicted to be fragile at best.
“Lockdown will have changed some business models forever and going forwards, it’s important that stability in the jobs market does not mask the need to stimulate economic growth in the longer term.
“Only 3.5% of the welsh workforce had experience of working from home prior to lockdown and this fact, plus the absence of high skilled service roles will need to be addressed to give Welsh cities a level playing field with other 海角视频 cities, as business throughout the 海角视频 adjust to a new normal and ponder how to attract the investment necessary for future prosperity.
“Support in the form of the 海角视频 Government’s levelling up agenda will be important for Wales in order to consolidate on the stability promised this year to deliver long term economic benefit.”