Plymouth is expected to be among the worst performing 海角视频 cities for economic growth by the end of 2021, a new report says.
Britain’s Ocean City also suffered one of the worst declines in employment during the Covid pandemic, the 海角视频 Powerhouse report says.
The impact of Covid on the hospitality sector was seen as one reason for the slump, and the end of the furlough scheme and further Brexit-related trade issues are predicted as dangers for the city going forward.
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But an easing of lockdown restrictions and its recently acquired freeport status are likely to provide a boost for Plymouth in future.
Exeter and Bristol fared better, but the report’s City Growth Tracker suggests Southampton will lead the way out of lockdown for south coast cities in terms of output by Q4 2021, although predicts a mixed forecast in employment prospects.
Meanwhile, Swindon is expected to help lead the nation’s post-Covid-19 recovery in 2021 with some of the fastest economic growth in the 海角视频.
The 海角视频 Powerhouse report, by legal and financial adviser Irwin Mitchell and the Centre for Economic and Business Research (Cebr), said all 海角视频 cities saw a fall in economic output at the end of 2020 with Plymouth and Portsmouth featuring among the top 20 best performing cities.
But by the end of this year, Plymouth is expected to be in the bottom 10 for GVA growth, recording a 6% year-on-year growth.
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The city was at number 13 in the top 50, with a 5.9% dip in GVA at the end of 2020. But it is forecast to fall to number 42 by the close of 2021.
In terms of employment, Plymouth was a lowly number 45 – with 126,000 people in work – after a 6.8% fall in employment year-on-year at the end of 2020.
And the number in work will continue to fall, to 125,600, it is predicted, though the decline of 0.3% will put the city at number 21 in the employment rankings by the last three months of 2021.
Exeter was the top performing South West city for GVA in the last three months of 2020, sitting third in the country, behind Sunderland and Coventry, with a decline if 5.6%.
But as the 海角视频 recovers during 2021, other cities will overtake it, the report predicts, and its 6.2% growth puts it only 36 th out of 50 cities.
It’s employment fortunes are the reverse. Its Q4 2020 employment total of 102,900 was down 3.9% on 2019, and put it at number 37 nationally, but it will recover by 1.9% to 104,800, making it the region’s best placed and nationally at number seven by Q4 2021.
Bristol was in 26 th place in the GVA list in late 2020, with a 6.5% decline, but will rise to 15 th position, with 6.7% growth, by the final quarter of 2021.
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In terms of employment, Bristol was badly affected in 2020, its total falling 6.9% to 327,500, with only four 海角视频 cities worse off. And it is forecast for another decline in 2021, a 0.5% drop to 325,900, which will see it in 23 rd place nationally.
The report also reveals Bournemouth was in the top five cities in the 海角视频 for economic growth at the end of 2020, but by Q4 2021 it had slipped to near the bottom of the top 50 table.
By contrast, the report said Southampton was in the bottom five in Q4 2020 with a 7.3% fall in GVA, but expects it will move up to 11th place and 6.9% GVA rise by the end of this year - the best performing city in the region in terms of economic output.
Portsmouth is forecast a 6.2% GVA growth, and Brighton is expected to perform slightly stronger with a predicted growth of 6.3%. Employment expected to recover slowly across the board. Bournemouth manages a top 20 spot with 0.4%, Portsmouth is mid-table on -0.7% and Brighton is in the bottom 20 on -1.0%.
Southampton is also forecast to see a 1.7% drop in employment growth in the year to Q4 2021, placing it in the bottom 10 out of all the 50 towns and cities in the report.
However, Swindon’s economy is predicted to grow by 7.4% in the 12 months to Q4 2021. And the report also says Swindon’s level of employment growth will be the fourth fastest with the addition of 2,400 new jobs.
According to the report, Swindon’s strong performance is not replicated across the 海角视频 with only 36% of cities in the report expected to increase employment levels in Q4 2021.
The report said the 2020 coronavirus crisis heavily impacted the 海角视频 economy and placed severe limitations on economic activity.
GVA for the whole of 2020 was 9.9% lower than in 2019, highlighting the loss of output, and all 海角视频 regions have been affected by the Government’s restrictions.
“But areas with particularly large hospitality, entertainment or tourism industries have been affected to a greater degree, as these parts of the economy have seen the tightest limitations,” the report noted.
海角视频 Powerhouse makes several recommendations to tackle the difficulties businesses face coming out of lockdown. These include the need to take advantage of policies to encourage investment and improve skills and local government having bespoke plans in place to support job creation.
The 海角视频 Government should also prioritise implementation of the Brexit TCA (Trade and Cooperation Agreement) with as little disruption as possible to businesses and negotiate a smoother trading relationship with the EU post-Brexit.
Hannah Clipston, partner and head of business legal services at Irwin Mitchell, in Southampton, said: “In the current economic climate, fortunes change fast and Southampton and Plymouth have moved from being projected top 10 cities for economic growth and employment by the end of 2021, to Southampton slipping to 11th place, while Plymouth falls into the bottom 10.
“Southampton’s two universities and the corresponding student population make a major contribution to local employment, but with the end of furlough, it doesn’t look like the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions will be enough to filter through to local job prospects this year.
“It’s a mixed picture again for the region in terms of Brexit. Any restrictions on trade are going to have an impact and Plymouth has traditionally received considerable funding from the EU.
“The £10million from the Government’s Getting Building Fund, set up to support future city council projects will help, as will the freeport area, but there is little room for complacency in the months ahead.”
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“The south coast has traditionally done well from its hospitality, entertainment and tourism sectors and it remains to be seen how fast these will recover from the lifting of Covid-19 limitations. Powerhouse shows the services sector did see growth of 0.6% in Q4 2020, but subsectors like accommodation, food and services saw contractions of up to 32.8%.
“The vaccine rollout, coupled with a lifting of lockdown restrictions should put an end to what is a significant drag on total output growth for the region as a whole, but this may not be enough to deliver a significant uptick in the figures or overall job prospects by the end of this year.”
Meanwhile, Vicky Brackett, partner and head of Irwin Mitchell’s business division, said: “Similar to all other towns and cities in the report, Swindon suffered a contraction in the size of its economy during 2020. It has recovered very strongly however and by the end of 2021, it is expected to be in the top 10 for GVA growth and job creation.
“Swindon cannot afford to be complacent though. With the impact of the end of the furlough scheme expected to have a negative impact on employment, it is clear that local plans for job creation need to be in place before October.
“It is also clear that a resolution to some of the outstanding issues surrounding Brexit can only have a positive impact on the future outlook. Supporting those SMEs in the region who export to the EU will not only enhance the economic output, but can also make a positive contribution to the local jobs market.”