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Commercial Property

Northern Ireland housing market tops º£½ÇÊÓÆµ league table but long-term outlook uncertain

Nationwide said average house prices in the province jumped 7.4% in the first quarter of 2021, bolstered by extension of government support

Nationwide said Northern Ireland house prices jumped 7.4% in the first quarter of 2021

The seemingly inexorable rise of the Northern Ireland housing market has continued into 2021 with the province showing the biggest jump in prices of all º£½ÇÊÓÆµ regions in the first quarter, according the latest survey from Nationwide.

It recorded an increase in average prices of 7.4% in the three months to the end of March compared to the same period last year, a move said to be bolstered by the extension of the stamp duty holiday and a better-than-expected performance by the wider economy.

However, while the overall º£½ÇÊÓÆµ housing market posted an impressive performance and looks to be supported over the next six months, the building society warned that the longer-term outlook looks “highly uncertain”.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said the jobs market will be a leading indicator.

“It may be that the recovery continues to gather momentum and that shifts in housing demand resulting from the pandemic continue to lift the market,” he said. “However, if the labour market weakens towards the end of the year as policy support is withdrawn, as most analysts expect, then activity is likely to slow nearer the end of 2021, perhaps sharply.”

In the meantime, measures announced by Chancellor Rishi Sunak will underpin the market.

“Recent signs of economic resilience and the stimulus measures announced in the Budget, including the extension of the furlough scheme and the stamp duty holiday, as well as the introduction of a mortgage guarantee scheme, suggest that housing market activity is likely to remain buoyant over the next six months.”

The latest jump puts the average price of a house in Northern Ireland at £159,012, a level which is the second lowest in the º£½ÇÊÓÆµ, only pipped by what Nationwide refers to as North England at £138,348 and which relates to areas such as Newcastle Upon Tyne, Durham and Middlesborough.